At the conclusion of an unequivocal vote on Monday, September 8, 2025, the Prime Minister’s vote of confidence is rejected: François Bayrou will submit his resignation on Tuesday morning. In Paris, the Assembly remains without a majority, at the Élysée, Emmanuel Macron consults as of tonight. Who will govern, how to avoid dissolution, with what 2026 budget and which partners? The battle for minimal stability begins.
What happened
On Monday, September 8, 2025, the National Assembly rejected François Bayrou’s vote of confidence: 364 deputies voted against, 194 for, and 15 abstained. This is the first time in the Fifth Republic that a government has fallen during a vote of confidence. The Prime Minister will submit his resignation on Tuesday morning to Emmanuel Macron.
Key figures: 364 "against," 194 "for," 15 abstentions.
Earlier at the podium, Bayrou once again warned about France’s "vital prognosis." Indeed, it is "engaged" by over-indebtedness. Consequently, he called for a surge. His trial, which he said he wanted, ends with the fall of an executive deprived of a majority.
A fractured chamber, assumed lines
The left and the National Rally had announced the vote against. The Republicans presented themselves in a scattered order, claiming freedom of vote and assumed divisions. At the response bench, the group leaders set their markers:
- Ecologist and socialist left: no blank check to a policy deemed austere, demand for "alternation."
- RN: outright rejection of the record and call for dissolution or a new direction.
- LIOT: refusal of "all or nothing," demand for project majorities.
- Horizons and MoDem: loyal support, in the name of stability and budgetary truth.
On the LR side, "freedom of vote" and division: 27 for (including Laurent Wauquiez), 13 against, 9 abstentions. In the majority, Violette Spillebout (Renaissance) abstained in reaction to the Prime Minister’s remarks on the Bétharram affair.
In the chamber, words clashed. Boris Vallaud denounced a "defeat" that the government could not turn into a victory. Laurent Wauquiez mentioned unenthusiastic support and advocated for a negotiated coalition. Marc Fesneau defended the line of "truth of numbers" in the face of the budgetary "Himalaya." Cyrielle Chatelain claimed a left-wing roadmap. Éric Ciotti condemned the Prime Minister to failure and urged the executive to get out of the impasse.
On social networks, the presidential majority’s elected officials displayed their "for" ballot. Meanwhile, the opposition published their "against." It was a way to openly seal the outcome of the vote.
The institutional sequence after the vote of confidence
The head of government presents his resignation. Emmanuel Macron accepts or defers it pending consultations. Three paths are theoretically available to the President:
- Appoint a new Prime Minister: the most likely short-term scenario. It requires a government agreement or, at a minimum, assured non-censure.
- Dissolve the National Assembly: legally possible, politically risky, without a guarantee of a majority.
- Presidential resignation: a highly improbable hypothesis, with significant consequences for the 2027 calendar.
In the immediate future, the Élysée consults the President of the Assembly, group leaders, and social partners. The Senate is also preparing its sequence, even though the main action takes place at the Palais-Bourbon. The Élysée acknowledges the failure and will appoint "in the very next few days" a new Prime Minister.
Why the failure of the vote of confidence brought down Bayrou
The bet of 49.1 was part of a strategy of clarification. It aimed to force political forces to assume their position on a budgetary trajectory. This trajectory was made of substantial savings and a freeze on spending (excluding defense). But arithmetic spoke: without a stable majority, without a formalized pact with LR or part of the socialists, confidence could not be secured.
Added to this are accumulated controversies and a criticized style: an "all or nothing" perceived as contrary to the compromise so praised by the Béarnais. In public opinion, weariness with the budgetary sequence increased. Moreover, distrust of an austerity deemed diffuse ended up isolating Matignon.
Political reactions, clearly
- On the left, the socialists (Boris Vallaud) hammer: "We are ready." LFI reaffirms its refusal of any agreement with the presidential majority and calls for an assumed cohabitation. The ecologists see an opportunity to turn the page on compromises with the right.
- On the right, LR tries to reconcile responsibility and identity: some deputies supported Bayrou, others refused. Bruno Retailleau defends the idea of a government contract centered on the budget and sovereign matters.
- At the RN, the line remains unchanged: call for new legislative elections and promise to censure any executive that would renew the same recipes.
- Ensemble (Gabriel Attal) proposes that the president appoint a negotiator. Then, this negotiator would build a general interest agreement around a minimal budgetary base. This would be done before appointing a new Prime Minister.
- RN (Marine Le Pen): the dissolution is no longer "an option, but an obligation."
Casting rumors (unconfirmed)
The rumor lists figures with different balances:
- Sébastien Lecornu: continuity of the central bloc, hypothesis of non-censure by the RN on sovereign texts.
- Éric Lombard: center-left profile capable of neutralizing socialist censure.
- Catherine Vautrin, Gérald Darmanin: options assuming a social order line and the alliance of the right.
- Pierre Moscovici, Xavier Bertrand, Bernard Cazeneuve: variants of a bridge to a cross-party coalition.
To date, no official short-list: the only confirmed information is that the Élysée will appoint "in the very next few days" a new Prime Minister.
Public finances, the crux of the crisis
At the heart of Bayrou’s speech, a thesis: France lives under debt constraint and must curb its spending to avoid the storm. The oppositions respond with a disagreement on method (priorities, pace, distribution of efforts) and a narrative conflict: "punitive austerity" for some, "budgetary truth" for others.
The 2026 trajectory will be the first test for the successor: without a majority, it will be necessary to compose text by text and buy time with thematic pacts (health, schools, territories, ecological transition).
Should a democracy without a majority change its rules?
The repetition of falls by mistrust rather than by censure outlines a regime of blockage. Three levers are on the constitutionalists’ table:
- Establish a vote of investiture for the Prime Minister, forcing a positive majority.
- Expand proportional representation in legislative elections to reflect the country – at the risk of increasing fragmentation.
- Contractualize published and quantified coalition agreements, accompanied by a revision schedule.
In the meantime, the Fifth Republic absorbs the shock: the state functions, but readability erodes. The future will depend less on a name than on the method.
Reference points and keys to understanding
- Article 49.1: allows the government to commit its responsibility on a general policy statement.
- Article 49.2: motion of censure by which the Assembly withdraws its confidence from the government.
- Article 50: in case of disapproval, the Prime Minister must present the government’s resignation.
- Recent precedent: on December 4, 2024, the Barnier government was overthrown by a motion of censure (331 votes).
Brief biographies
- François Bayrou: president of MoDem, former minister, mayor of Pau, became Prime Minister in December 2024.
- Emmanuel Macron: president since 2017, without an absolute majority since 2024.
- Boris Vallaud, Laurent Wauquiez, Cyrielle Chatelain, Marc Fesneau, Éric Ciotti: group leaders whose positions structured the day’s vote.
And now after the vote of confidence?
As of Tuesday morning, the Élysée is expected to resolve the crisis: rapid appointment, government contract, or bet on cross-abstentions. The next occupant of Matignon will have neither a honeymoon period nor a majority. Consequently, they will need, at best, a narrow window to pass the 2026 budget. Thus, this will prevent France from settling into permanent dissolution.