Why Trump’s US territory map makes the Strait of Hormuz a major diplomatic and maritime flashpoint in 2026

Donald Trump addresses the crowd at a rally in Glendale on August 23, 2024. This direct gesture recalls a style of communication built on defiance and provocation. Credits: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0.

Donald Trump takes the crowd as witness during a rally in Glendale on August 23, 2024. This direct gesture reflects a style of communication built on defiance and provocation. Credits: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0.

Donald Trump posted a map on Truth Social on August 18 showing the Strait of Hormuz as “new US territory.” This third move in five days, after a rally and then a statement in the Oval Office, has no legal effect. It does, however, come amid a conflict with Iran. Maritime traffic remains very limited and negotiations over passage are deadlocked.

A Map Without Text, In The Third Act

The post shared on Truth Social appeared on August 18 at 11:09:26 UTC. It came from the verified account of the US president. His message contains no text. The image shows a map, a circle around the Strait of Hormuz, and the words “New US Territory.” It is accompanied by no decree, diplomatic statement, or legal document.

This visual continues a sequence that began on August 14 in Garden City, New York. Donald Trump was speaking before law enforcement officials and Republican supporters. He announced that he would soon declare the strait to be United States territory once Iran was defeated. Images of the event show him laughing, then clarifying that the United States controls the passage through its blockade.

The next day, Wall Street Journal reporter Brian Schwartz relayed the account of an unnamed senior US official. The president had supposedly been joking and had not discussed such a decision with his advisers. That unofficial explanation, however, did not close the episode.

On August 17, when asked in the Oval Office, Donald Trump repeated the idea. “We control it with the blockade,” he said, before calling making it US territory a “good idea.” The following day, the map turned that oral statement into a visual message. It still does not specify whether this is a provocation, a negotiating lever, or a political plan.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi had responded as early as August 14. In his view, a strait cannot be acquired by a speech, a decree, an aircraft carrier, or an online post. His response was meant to underscore that the ability to exert military pressure does not transfer sovereignty.

Kazem Gharibabadi speaks quietly during a meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna on September 9, 2019. The Iranian diplomat stands at the center of an arena where every word affects the balance of power. Credits: Dean Calma / IAEA, CC BY 2.0.
Kazem Gharibabadi speaks quietly during a meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna on September 9, 2019. The Iranian diplomat stands at the center of an arena where every word affects the balance of power. Credits: Dean Calma / IAEA, CC BY 2.0.

Who Owns The Strait Of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran to the north and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula to the south. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The two coastal states exercise sovereignty over their territorial waters; the United States is not a coastal state on the passage. The strait therefore does not belong to a single country. Its navigation regime, however, limits what coastal states can impose on transiting ships.

The right of passage and sovereignty are two separate concepts. In July, the Council of the International Maritime Organization reiterated the right of transit. In a strait used for international navigation, that right must not be blocked or suspended. The Council also asked that the corridor recognized since 1968 remain accessible without discrimination, tolls, or other charges.

A presidential statement alone cannot alter these sovereign rights. Two maritime law professors interviewed by CNN, Jason Chuah and Simon Baughen, emphasized the limits of a proclamation. It is not enough under either US law or international law. Any possible transfer would require, among other things, the consent of the state concerned. As of August 19, no official US act mentions such a procedure.

Kazem Gharibabadi shakes hands with Rafael Mariano Grossi at IAEA headquarters in Vienna on October 31, 2024. Under the agency’s emblem, the handshake gives diplomatic tensions a formal face. Credits: Dean Calma / IAEA, CC BY 2.0.
Kazem Gharibabadi shakes hands with Rafael Mariano Grossi at IAEA headquarters in Vienna on October 31, 2024. Under the agency’s emblem, the handshake gives diplomatic tensions a formal face. Credits: Dean Calma / IAEA, CC BY 2.0.

Claimed Military Control, Still Very Limited Traffic

In a message posted on August 18 and reported by the Associated Press, Donald Trump described his blockade of Iranian ports as fully effective. He also said mines had been neutralized and that the strait was “open and operational.” These three claims reflect the US position. They do not give the United States sovereignty over the passage. Nor do they prove that commercial shipping has returned to its prewar level.

Available data paint a less black-and-white picture than a strait that is either fully open or fully closed. According to Kpler, cited in the same report, the most recent measured week recorded 95 confirmed transits. That is a 19.5% drop. Only three ships crossed the passage on Sunday. This count is still incomplete: some vessels switch off the transponder that broadcasts their location.

Iran, by contrast, maintains that the strait will remain closed until the commitments of a protocol signed in June are met. Iranian demands include lifting the naval blockade, unfreezing assets, and ending certain military operations. In practice, a few ships still pass through, but traffic remains far below prewar levels. Saying the strait is closed therefore describes a severe restriction, not necessarily a complete absence of movement.

This difference between sovereignty, freedom of passage, and operational control also answers the question of who currently controls Hormuz. Iran can act on routes near its coast. The United States exerts naval pressure in the area, while Oman takes part in discussions on organizing traffic. None of these actors alone holds undisputed legal and material control over the entire strait.

Denied Negotiations, But Channels Still Active

On August 18, Donald Trump said that no talks with Iran were underway or scheduled. That statement contradicted his envoy Jared Kushner. The day before, Kushner had referred to active exchanges between several components of the two state apparatuses. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, for their part, denied the existence of a direct channel with the United States.

The claimed absence of bilateral talks does not mean that all mediation has stopped. Iran and Oman are continuing their exchanges on managing the strait. Qatar and Egypt present an agreement between the two coastal states as a possible step toward resuming talks. These parallel tracks remain fragile: as of August 19, no agreement had been announced.

According to officials cited anonymously by the Associated Press, the administration opposes Iranian-Omani co-management of the exit route. It also rejects collecting contributions to fund maritime security, even when they are presented as voluntary. The IMO, for its part, supports a toll-free passage. The disagreement therefore concerns very concrete rules. Who organizes the corridors, ensures security, or can ask ships for payment?

After the map was posted, Kazem Gharibabadi again rejected the US claim, describing it as an illusion. His reaction shows that Donald Trump’s message is now part of the diplomatic standoff. Yet no territorial measure gives it any substance.

Kazem Gharibabadi listens to the debates during a special IAEA session in Vienna on December 2, 2019. The tight framing captures the Iranian representative’s seriousness amid the negotiations. Credits: Dean Calma / IAEA, CC BY 2.0.
Kazem Gharibabadi listens to the debates during a special IAEA session in Vienna on December 2, 2019. The tight framing captures the Iranian representative’s seriousness amid the negotiations. Credits: Dean Calma / IAEA, CC BY 2.0.

Why Closing Hormuz Weighs On The Global Economy

Before the war, the strait was the main maritime exit route for Persian Gulf producers. In the first half of 2025, the US Energy Information Administration estimated flows at 20.9 million barrels per day. Oil and petroleum products thus accounted for about 20% of global liquid fuel consumption. A significant share of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports also goes through this route.

A prolonged closure reduces available volumes, lengthens some routes, and drives up transport, insurance, and cargo financing costs. It first hits Asian countries heavily dependent on Gulf hydrocarbons. Its effects then spread to global energy prices, and then to transport costs and many goods.

The map posted by Donald Trump therefore does not change borders. It adds political ambiguity to a conflict in which words influence shipowners, insurers, and mediating states. No official act exists, and the American and Iranian versions of the passage’s status remain opposed. The phrase “new US territory” is therefore a rhetorical claim, not a territorial fact.

This article was written by Christian Pierre.