Credits: The White House / Wikimedia Commons — Public domain.
On Friday, May 23, Donald Trump stunned observers by announcing a possible 25% increase in tariffs. This hike would affect iPhones made outside the United States. The statement, posted on Truth Social, directly targets Apple, an emblematic company of American technological power. In response, Apple’s stock price fell 2.5% in premarket trading.
Trump says he informed Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, of this demand. According to him, iPhones sold in the United States must be assembled in the United States, not in India or elsewhere. The announcement comes with an explicit threat: to impose 50% tariffs on European imports starting June 1. The former president accuses the European Union of unfair trade practices against American interests.
A Populist and Calculated Election Tactic
These threats are not solely a matter of trade policy. They follow a clear electoral logic. In the middle of the 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump is trying to win back industrial America. He is appealing to a working class weakened by globalization and to undecided voters in key Midwest states.
By targeting Apple, he turns an American multinational into the symbol of a globalized economy he sees as broken. The brand represents both innovation and critical dependence on Asian supply chains. By contrasting this with an ideal of a “made in USA” iPhone, Trump is promoting a sovereigntist narrative that is appealing but hard to achieve without shaking up the entire tech sector.
Questionable Legal Grounds
Trump is considering invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act or Section 301 of the Trade Act, as he did during his first term. These tools impose tariffs for national security reasons. They also respond to trade practices deemed unfair.
However, these measures raise serious legal objections within the WTO. They would notably violate the most-favored-nation clause, which requires equal treatment for all members. In addition, they would force Washington to offer trade compensation. Finally, no U.S. legal provision allows a specific company such as Apple to be targeted, except under exceptional justification.
Europe and China Mobilize
The European Union quickly reacted to Trump’s statements. Brussels mentioned the implementation of countermeasures targeting American financial and digital sectors. Indeed, the United States runs structural surpluses in these sectors. China, for its part, has already shown it can retaliate, especially between 2018 and 2019, notably by striking American agricultural exports, a Trump electoral stronghold.
These reprisals could create a boomerang effect on the U.S. economy. Companies dependent on imported components or international markets would be particularly vulnerable. In the long run, this kind of strategy could weaken the United States’ overall competitiveness on the world stage.
A Trade Policy Whose Effectiveness Is Questioned
Tariffs do not address the root causes of the American trade deficit. That deficit stems more from a macroeconomic imbalance between domestic consumption, savings rates, and the public deficit. Despite tariff increases put in place between 2016 and 2020, the deficit kept growing. As a result, it reached $1.2 trillion in 2024, a historic record.
In addition, this approach increases economic uncertainty. Companies hesitate to invest in the face of shifting trade rules. International partners doubt the legal and diplomatic stability of the United States. As a result, this undermines its bargaining power in multilateral forums such as the WTO or the G20.
Apple Faces Industrial Blackmail
Today, most iPhones intended for the U.S. market are produced in India. Indeed, this is part of a post-COVID diversification strategy. However, components still come overwhelmingly from Asian suppliers. A 25% tariff on these phones would hurt Apple, retailers, and American consumers. It would also not create significant numbers of jobs in the United States.
In addition, such a measure could fuel inflation, already under the watch of the Federal Reserve. The end result could be a broad increase in the price of tech products, worsening pressure on purchasing power.
A Transatlantic Dispute That Is Hard to Manage
The trade dispute between the United States and the European Union is nothing new. Trump accuses Europe of benefiting from privileged access to the American market. Yet the data are disputed. The bilateral trade deficit is estimated at $235 billion by the USTR, but at only €150 billion according to the European Commission.
In reality, U.S. services — especially in finance, legal services, and digital sectors — generate a surplus with the EU. If tensions escalate, Brussels could target sensitive sectors such as cloud computing, digital platforms, or banking services. But divisions among member states make a quick, coordinated response difficult.
High-Risk Economic Diplomacy
At bottom, Donald Trump is using tariffs as a political bargaining chip. He hopes to win trade concessions without triggering an open war. However, his approach rests on fragile legal grounds, a weak economic strategy, and an unpredictable diplomatic stance.
This transactional style has already weakened the American position in international negotiations. It fuels mistrust among traditional allies. It also creates favorable ground for the rise of rivals such as China or India.
A View of Trade Swimming Against the Tide
Most developed economies rely on multilateral agreements. However, Trump continues to defend a protectionist, unilateral vision of global trade. This approach may appeal to an electorate nostalgic for a bygone era. But it also risks turning the United States inward, to the detriment of its influence and future prosperity.