Marine Le Pen, an essential figure in French politics, navigates between impressive electoral successes and personal challenges. At the head of the Rassemblement National (RN) since 2011, she has transformed a long-marginalized party into a major political force. But a judicial trial now threatens her political future, casting a shadow over a career marked by numerous victories.
A Rapid Rise and Electoral Successes
When Marine Le Pen took the reins of the Front National in 2011, she inherited a party with a heavy past. Her strategy of "de-demonization," notably marked by the transition to the Rassemblement National, revitalized a political formation long criticized. This strategic shift broadened her electoral base, appealing beyond the usual Front National voters.
Result: two qualifications for the second round of the presidential elections, in 2017 and 2022, with a record score of 41.5% in the latter. In the National Assembly, she achieved an unprecedented feat for the Front National: 125 RN deputies, transforming the party into a credible and visible opposition.
On the European stage, Marine Le Pen also holds her own. The 2014 and 2019 elections placed the RN at the forefront in France, confirming her status as an emblematic figure of European populism.
Distinctions and International Influence
Marine Le Pen does not limit her shine to France. Time Magazine has recognized her influence by repeatedly including her among the 100 most influential people. Additionally, Forbes has praised her role. She is considered a central figure in the rise of sovereigntist movements. She is one of the few French female politicians to receive such international recognition. But this notoriety, far from being consensual, divides as much as it fascinates.
Judicial Threats: An Uncertain Future
Today, her rise seems to hang by a thread. Marine Le Pen is accused of misappropriating European funds. This accusation concerns the FN parliamentary assistants’ affair. Consequently, she risks a severe penalty. Indeed, the penalty incurred is five years of ineligibility. If found guilty, this sanction would be applied immediately. Such a decision would exclude her from the 2027 presidential election, disrupting her ambitions and those of her party.
The RN denounces a "judicial harassment." Jordan Bardella, her designated successor, criticizes an attempt to "muzzle the people." Even Gérald Darmanin, a fierce opponent, calls for respecting popular sovereignty. This is as unexpected a support as a compliment on the cuisine in the Assembly.
The Weight of Political Legacy
Whatever the judicial outcome, Marine Le Pen will have profoundly marked her party. In ten years, she has broadened the RN’s electorate, attracting working-class and younger generations. Her strategic and media transformation has made the RN an essential player in the French political landscape.
If justice rules against her, a succession plan will need to be activated. Jordan Bardella, the young president of the RN, seems poised to take up the torch. He is ambitious, dynamic, and media-savvy. However, he still has something to prove. He must demonstrate that he can lead the RN beyond the shadow of Marine Le Pen.
A Career in the Balance
Marine Le Pen embodies a political paradox. Triumphant yet vulnerable, contested yet essential, she has managed to leave her mark in a France seeking direction. While the Élysée remains out of reach for now, her influence on the French political landscape is undeniable.
Whether she is condemned or continues to fight, Marine Le Pen is a major figure. She is emblematic of her era, oscillating between brilliance and fragility. And for her opponents who hope to see her disappear, beware: history has often proven that Marine Le Pen is more resilient than she appears.