Credits: Vox España / Wikimedia Commons — CC0.
Eighteen months before the vote, an Ifop-Fiducial survey conducted online on September 24 and 25, 2025, puts the National Rally in the lead in the first round, at between 33% and 35%. Behind it, second place is up for grabs below 20% between Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The presidential majority is slipping, social-democratic momentum is rising, and this is more snapshot than prophecy.
2027 Presidential Poll: What The Late-September 2025 Ifop Snapshot Shows
The latest Ifop-Fiducial numbers offer a picture that stands out in the political landscape. In the 2027 first round, the National Rally takes first place with 33% to 35% of the vote. That depends on which scenario is tested, with either Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. According to the 2027 presidential poll, Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella are the candidates considered. Behind them, second place is decided by a hair. Édouard Philippe ranges from 16% to 19%. Raphaël Glucksmann stands at 14% to 16%. Jean-Luc Mélenchon hovers around 12% to 13%. On the presidential majority side, Gabriel Attal tops out at around 10%, Gérald Darmanin at around 7%, and François Bayrou at around 3%. On the traditional right, Bruno Retailleau falls in a range of 9% to 13%. Fieldwork was conducted on September 24 and 25, 2025, published on September 29, and picked up on September 30.
In this snapshot in time, the evidence is twofold. The RN is building on a solid lead. The threshold to reach the second round is drifting below 20%. A quiet reversal that changes the grammar of alliances.
A Historically Low Qualification Threshold
French elections have long tended to tighten the screws in the first round. But the qualification bar is dropping again. With a leader at 33% to 35%, it takes just under 20% to slip into the runoff. That level weakens any political family that enters scattered. It fully exposes the risk of vote splitting on the center and left. It mechanically boosts the advantage of the best-placed candidate in the central bloc. It also encourages left-wing unity around a clearly identified figure.
In the scenarios tested, Édouard Philippe often edges ahead. The range from 16% to 19% shows how sensitive the scores are to the candidate lineup. Raphaël Glucksmann is strengthening the social-democratic edge. Jean-Luc Mélenchon keeps a loyal but stable base. Each is weighing their ability to rally support beyond their core.
The Central Bloc Under Pressure
The presidential majority emerges weakened by an exhausting stretch. The numbers tell a story of erosion. Gabriel Attal around 10%, Gérald Darmanin around 7%, François Bayrou around 3%. Behind those numbers is a simple question. Who can bring together a disheartened electorate without splitting it further? Édouard Philippe is still the frontrunner. His stature as a former prime minister and his liberal-social profile allow him to reach up to 19% depending on the combination. But the margin is thin. It would not take much to shave it down.
Emmanuel Macron’s popularity is declining in late September 2025. Opinion trackers point to a low level. A signal for his political heirs. The more the executive slips into unpopularity, the more its designated successors inherit a symbolic burden. Hence the risk aversion among moderate voters. Hence the temptation to pull back to clear-cut options.
On The Left, The Edge Goes To The Social-Democratic Face
The left has started moving again. In this poll, Raphaël Glucksmann breaks through at between 14% and 16%. He captures a share of the troubled Macronist electorate. His European and social-democratic message appeals to an urban, educated audience concerned with stability. Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains around 12% to 13%. His oratorical force and visibility keep him at the same level as in other waves. But reaching the second round requires a clear, unified offer. Without a single candidacy, the left runs into a glass ceiling.
In a matchup with Édouard Philippe, Glucksmann could compete for second place. Everything hinges on delicate vote transfers. Part of the former majority could shift toward a regulated left, far from the rough edges. Conversely, the working classes and a portion of the less educated remain open to the RN. Nothing is set in stone. It all depends on the final lineup and the timing of endorsements.
On The Right, A Tight Space
Bruno Retailleau is trying to carve out a path beyond the LR brand. His range from 9% to 13% signals real appeal and a reservoir that only needs the right angle. The problem remains. Between an hegemonic RN and a center that still holds local strongholds, the LR offer gets crushed. It finds a path only at the cost of a clearly identifiable story on authority, the economy, and Europe. That takes time. The calendar leaves little of it.
The RN, A Consolidated Lead But One That Depends On Conditions
The 33% to 35% range remains stable. The RN is cementing a base that shifts only marginally depending on the opponent lineup. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella seem interchangeable to part of the electorate. The logic is one of alternative rather than personal embodiment. The momentum is clear. It does, however, run into two unknowns. The legalization of part of the debate surrounding Marine Le Pen. The political age of Jordan Bardella and his ability to carry the demands of a national head-to-head over time.
The party knows that a presidential race is won outside the polls too. Team competence becomes crucial as the vote approaches. In addition, the strength of the narrative in a storm is essential. Moreover, programmatic consistency on the economy and Europe has a significant impact. The local base built from the European and legislative elections of 2024 feeds that foundation. It does not replace a campaign.
How To Read An Election Poll Without Getting It Wrong
This poll is based on a self-administered online questionnaire. The sample includes 1,127 registered voters. The quota method ensures representativeness. It is based on sex, age, and occupation. It also takes region and urban area size into account. These figures provide a snapshot that is valid at the time of fieldwork. They are not a prediction.
The margin of error depends on two factors. Sample size and the measured proportion. With n equal to 1,127, uncertainty is around plus or minus 3 points for levels near 50%. It falls to around 2 points for levels near 10% to 20%. It can come close to 1 point for small scores. Differences within those ranges are not significant. The variation between scenarios comes from the makeup of the candidate field. It also results from a real shift in opinion.
The order in which names are shown also matters. A name placed at the top of the list can benefit from a salience effect. The wording of the question influences the projection the respondent makes. Prior familiarity with the candidate affects stated intention. Reading a poll therefore means cross-checking these factors rather than freezing a final ranking.
Dates, Publications, Precautions
Fieldwork is dated September 24 and 25, 2025. Publication took place on September 29, followed by reprints on September 30. Caution requires placing these numbers in time. A national or international news event is enough to move the needle. A rally, a speech, a court ruling, a social unrest sequence influence the response climate. Hence the familiar phrase used by polling firms: a snapshot in time.
The publishing outlets, Sud Radio and L’Opinion, stress this point. The Ifop documents repeat it. The survey does not predict an outcome. It measures a balance of power on a given day. It helps read a trend. It does not replace a campaign or a coalition.
What The Popularity Trackers Say
The Ifop trackers recorded a drop in Emmanuel Macron’s popularity in September 2025. This unpopularity reflects a context that is not very favorable for the candidates or appointees of the majority. It feeds the difficulty of creating a mobilizing story at the center. It explains the rise of alternative figures like Glucksmann and the persistence of an opposition reflex in favor of the RN.
On the left and in the center, the personalities that move ahead are the ones that offer a balance point. A way to reassure without renouncing anything. Édouard Philippe is one of them. Glucksmann too. One speaks order and modernity. The other Europe and social policy. Two paths seeking a relative majority.
The Scenarios Open To The RN
The RN offer stands out for its duality. Marine Le Pen remains the patriarchal figure. Jordan Bardella embodies a younger continuity. Both scenarios deliver similar scores. The debate over a possible handover remains sensitive. It is fueled by legal elements that belong not to political fiction but to the timeline of appeals. Those involved say the strategy will remain unified.
This controlled ambiguity offers an advantage. It broadens the RN’s ability to win over distinct social segments. It also poses a challenge. In the event of a hindrance or a shift, the transition must remain clear. Voters punish drift. They reward coherence.
What This Sequence Already Changes
The 2027 campaign has not started. Yet the lines are moving. The RN is building an advantage. The qualification threshold is dropping. Second place is becoming the real primary. The strategists of the center and the left are reading the same lesson. Clarity pays. Unity costs but delivers. Time is running out. In 18 months, the field will need to be settled. Until then, the curve could still change direction.