Eighteen months before the election, an Ifop-Fiducial survey conducted online on September 24 and 25, 2025, places the National Rally at the top of the first round, between 33% and 35%. Behind, the second place is contested below the 20% mark between Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Presidential majority in decline, social-democratic momentum on the rise, a snapshot of the moment more than a prophecy.
2027 Presidential Poll: What the Ifop Snapshot of Late September 2025 Shows
The latest Ifop-Fiducial figures provide a striking image in the political landscape. In the first round of 2027, the National Rally reaches the first place with 33% to 35% of the votes. This depends on the tested hypothesis, either Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. According to the 2027 presidential poll, Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella are the considered candidates. Behind, the second place is closely contested. Édouard Philippe ranges from 16% to 19%. Raphaël Glucksmann is between 14% and 16%. Jean-Luc Mélenchon hovers around 12% to 13%. On the presidential majority side, Gabriel Attal peaks around 10%, Gérald Darmanin around 7%, François Bayrou around 3%. On the traditional right, Bruno Retailleau is in a range of 9% to 13%. Fieldwork conducted on September 24 and 25, 2025, publication on September 29, follow-ups on September 30.
In this snapshot of the moment, the evidence is twofold. The RN capitalizes on a solid lead. The threshold for access to the second round slips below 20%. A silent reversal that changes the grammar of alliances.
A Historically Low Qualification Threshold
The French election has become accustomed to tightening the screws in the first round. But the qualification threshold is lowering further. With a leader between 33% and 35%, it takes just under 20% to sneak into the second round. This level weakens all political families that arrive scattered. It fully exposes the risk of dispersion on both the center and left sides. It mechanically strengthens the advantage for the best-placed candidate of the central bloc. It also encourages unity on the left around an identified figure.
In the tested hypotheses, Édouard Philippe often leads by a narrow margin. The range from 16% to 19% illustrates the sensitivity of scores to the offer of candidacies. Raphaël Glucksmann pushes the social-democratic advantage. Jean-Luc Mélenchon maintains a loyal but stable base. Each gauges their ability to rally beyond their base.
The Central Bloc Under Pressure
The presidential majority emerges weakened by a tiring sequence. The figures tell a story of erosion. Gabriel Attal around 10%, Gérald Darmanin around 7%, François Bayrou around 3%. Behind these figures, a simple question. Who can aggregate a discouraged electorate without dividing it further? Édouard Philippe holds the lead. His stature as a former Prime Minister and his liberal-social profile allow him to reach up to 19% depending on the combinations. But the margin is narrow. A slight change can erode it.
The popularity of Emmanuel Macron declines at the end of September 2025. Opinion barometers point to a low level. A signal for his political heirs. The more the executive sinks into unpopularity, the more his designated successors inherit a symbolic burden. Hence the risk aversion among moderate voters. Hence the temptation to retreat to clear offers.
On the Left, the Advantage of the Social-Democratic Face
The left has regained momentum. In this poll, Raphaël Glucksmann breaks through between 14% and 16%. He captures a portion of the disoriented Macronist electorate. His European and social-democratic narrative attracts an urban, educated audience concerned with stability. Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains around 12% to 13%. His oratorical power and visibility place him at the same level as in other waves. But access to the second round requires a clear and unique offer. Without a single candidacy, the left hits a glass ceiling.
In the hypothesis of a duel with Édouard Philippe, Glucksmann could contest the second place. Everything hinges on delicate transfers. A part of the former majority may shift towards a regulated left, far from rough edges. Conversely, the working classes and a fraction of the less educated remain accessible to the RN. Nothing is set in stone. Everything depends on the final casting and the timing of alliances.
On the Right, a Narrow Space
Bruno Retailleau attempts to open a path beyond the LR brand. His range from 9% to 13% indicates a real audience and a reservoir that only needs an angle. The problem remains. Between a hegemonic RN and a center that retains local strongholds, the LR offer collapses. It finds a path only at the cost of an identifiable narrative on authority, economy, and Europe. The exercise requires time. The calendar offers little.
The RN, a Consolidated Lead but Conditional
The range of 33% to 35% remains stable. The RN cements a base that varies only slightly depending on the combination of opponents. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella appear interchangeable in the eyes of some voters. The logic is one of alternative rather than personal embodiment. The dynamic is clear. However, it faces two unknowns. The judicialization of part of the debate hovering over Marine Le Pen. The political age of Jordan Bardella and his ability to endure a national face-off over time.
The party knows that the presidential election is also won beyond polls. Team skills become crucial as the election approaches. Moreover, maintaining the narrative in the storm is essential. Furthermore, programmatic coherence on economy and Europe has a significant impact. The local anchoring from the 2024 European and legislative elections nourishes this base. It does not replace a campaign.
The Art of Reading an Electoral Poll Without Mistake
This poll is based on a self-administered online questionnaire. The sample includes 1,127 people registered on electoral lists. The quota method ensures representativeness. Additionally, it is based on gender, age, and profession. Furthermore, it takes into account the region and type of agglomeration. These figures provide a valid image at the time of the fieldwork. They do not constitute a prediction.
The margin of error depends on two elements. The sample size and the measured proportion. With n equal to 1,127, the uncertainty is around plus or minus 3 points for levels close to 50%. It decreases around 2 points for levels close to 10% to 20%. It can approach 1 point for small scores. The differences within these ranges are not significant. The variations between hypotheses result from the composition of the candidate platform. Additionally, they result from a real movement of opinion.
The order of display of personalities also plays a role. A name presented at the top of the list may benefit from a salience effect. The wording of the question influences the projection the respondent makes. The prior knowledge of the candidate affects the declaration of intention. Reading a poll thus involves crossing these parameters rather than fixing a definitive hierarchy.
Dates, Publications, Precautions
The fieldwork is dated September 24 and 25, 2025. The publication took place on September 29, followed by follow-ups on September 30. Caution requires situating these figures in time. A national or international event is enough to shift a cursor. A meeting, a speech, a court decision, a social sequence influence the response climate. Hence the established formula of the institutes. A snapshot of the moment.
The publication platforms, Sud Radio and L’Opinion, emphasize this point. The Ifop documents remind us. The survey does not predict a result. It measures a balance of power on the given day. It helps to read a dynamic. It does not replace a campaign or a coalition.
What the Popularity Barometers Say
The Ifop barometers record in September 2025 a decline in Emmanuel Macron’s popularity. This unpopularity targets a context that is not conducive for the candidates or executors of the majority. It fuels the difficulty in creating a mobilizing narrative at the center. It explains the emergence of alternative figures like Glucksmann and the maintenance of an opposition reflex benefiting the RN.
On the left as well as in the center, the personalities who progress are those who offer a balance point. A way to reassure without renouncing. Édouard Philippe is part of this. Glucksmann as well. One speaks of order and modernity. The other of Europe and social. Two paths seeking a relative majority.
The Scenarios Open at the RN Level
The RN offer surprises with its duality. Marine Le Pen remains the tutelary figure. Jordan Bardella embodies a renewed continuity. The two hypotheses deliver similar scores. The discussion on a possible succession remains sensitive. It is fueled by judicial elements that do not fall under political fiction but the calendar of appeals. The interested parties assure that the strategy will remain united.
This controlled ambiguity offers an advantage. It broadens the RN’s ability to conquer distinct social segments. It also poses a challenge. In case of impediment or shift, the transition must remain clear. Voters punish hesitations. They reward coherence.
What This Sequence Already Changes
The 2027 campaign hasn’t started. Yet, the lines are shifting. The RN is establishing a lead. The qualification threshold is lowering. The second place becomes the real primary. The strategists of the center and the left read the same lesson. Clarity pays off. Unity costs but yields. Time flies. In 18 months, the offer will need to be finalized. Until then, the curve can still change direction.