Revised in two stages between the Élysée and Matignon, the "Lecornu II" government takes the stage in an Assembly without a majority. From October 5 to 13, 2025, re-appointment, new faces, and votes of no confidence set the pace. Declared objective: to secure a credible 2026 budget, clarify the method (coalitions or 49.3), and contain social tensions, under the arbitration of Emmanuel Macron.
The Essential Facts
October 5, 2025: at the Élysée, the first composition of the Lecornu government (18 ministers) is displayed as a bet on controlled continuity: several ministers reappointed (Economy, Foreign Affairs, Justice, etc.) to reassure, and a promise of efficiency in a turbulent sea.
October 10, 2025: re-appointment of the Prime Minister. The corridors buzz, agendas open, the objective becomes clear: secure a budget before the end of the year, without breaking what remains of the coalition.
October 12, 2025: official birth of "Lecornu II", where technocrats and figures from the field mingle to hold the line.
October 10, 2025 (submitted), examined in the following days: RN and LFI submit their votes of no confidence. The stage is set, the tempo will be tight.
A Two-Stage Casting: Method and Signals
The method was imposed in stages. On 10/05, a first cut outlines the framework, on 10/12, the second act tightens the setup and clarifies the priorities: republican order, ecological transition, reindustrialization. Between the two, on 10/10, the re-appointment of Sébastien Lecornu confirms the choice of precise steering, close to parliamentary groups and the temperaments of the Assembly. In the salons of Matignon, columns of " non-negotiable / amendable" are drawn up, discreet meetings are scheduled, the wear and tear of nerves is measured, the team assumes a blend of high administration and practical knowledge, serving a promise: execute quickly, negotiate finely.
Confirmed Ministers (to date)
– Interior: Laurent Nuñez
– Armed Forces: Catherine Vautrin
– Economy/Finance: Roland Lescure
– Foreign Affairs: Jean-Noël Barrot
– Justice: Gérald Darmanin
– Education: Édouard Geffray
– Ecological Transition: Monique Barbut
The "Civil Society" Entrants: Five Cards, Five Risks (Mini-Bios)
– Catherine Chabaud: navigator, maritime culture ambassador, attentive to coastlines and risks.
– Serge Papin: former head of Système U, well-versed in purchasing power, announced by several media, awaiting official confirmation.
– Jean-Pierre Farandou: former SNCF, reflex for social dialogue and sense of service continuity.
– Monique Barbut: climate and biodiversity over the long term, an international compass.
– Édouard Geffray: National Education, mastery of mechanisms and budgetary balances.
Common Asset: Sectoral credibility and pragmatism. Weaknesses: mastering the rites of the chamber, the art of amendments, the mechanics of 49.3.
Political Parties Table in France 2025: Where is the Game Won?
577 seats, a relative majority, motions of no confidence in sight: the equation is known, but the outcome remains open. Three paths vie for the compass: case-by-case coalitions (slow, costly, fragile but fruitful when successful), 49.3 (straightforward, fast, flammable), and framework agreements with pivotal groups (more stable, at the cost of tangible concessions). In the antechambers, tables are leafed through, symbols weighed: fuels, TICPE, electro-intensive tariffs. One word too many unites the opposition, a just gesture can crack a front.
The 2026 Budget, Core of the Reactor
This is where everything converges. Objective: pass the budget stage before end of 2025 to give breathing room to 2026. Constraints: reduce the deficit while financing the ecological transition and preserving activity. The executive aims for a range of 4.7% to 5% of GDP for 2026, to be specified over the readings. Three scenarios clash: a compromise without 49.3, laborious but assumed, a controlled 49.3, an authoritative gesture followed by surgical work in the Senate, a two-stage iteration (tightened PLF, then collective in spring), which stretches uncertainty but provides rallying points. In each case, the same compass is sought: clarity of choices, fairness of efforts, predictability for the actors.
Psychology of the Actors: The French’s Favorite Political Personality 2025 as a Signal
Emmanuel Macron holds his line while allowing Sébastien Lecornu to "do politics": map out the reluctances, convert abstentions into support, prevent defections. The oppositions wish to mark the moment. However, if the censure fails, they will at least have highlighted a power under tension. The real country imposes its priorities: purchasing power, school, hospital, security. Hence this precise mix of sovereign and social portfolios. Thus, the call for profiles capable of holding the roadmap and the connection.
Timeline: From October 5 to 13
– 10/05: first composition (18 ministers).
– 10/10: re-appointment at Matignon.
– 10/12: announcement of "Lecornu II".
– 10/13: handover and launch of the budget sequence, start of the examination of motions of no confidence.
Checklist of Upcoming Trap Votes
- PLF 2026 (Assembly): trajectory of deficit and green spending.
- PLFSS 2026: care, pensions, hospital funding.
- End of management 2025: sensitive redeployments (fuels, energy).
- "Popular" amendments: fuels, electro-intensive tariffs, TICPE.
- Social articles: minimum wage, partial indexation, purchasing power measures.
Point of vigilance: each session can turn into a wild referendum on the cabinet’s solidity. The discipline of pivotal groups will be decisive.
Dissolution: Real Threat or Useful Mirage?
In 2025, dissolution remains the extreme weapon. It hovers mainly as a disciplining specter: no one wants to replay their seat cold. But if the deadlock sets in, the hypothesis will gain density. Lecornu II advances like a tightrope walker: a secured budget and some appeasements would be enough to close the parenthesis, a derailment, on the contrary, would reopen all the boxes.
A Survival Cabinet Under High Tension
Lecornu II is born in the middle of the ford. Its bet: stabilize the political scene, reconnect the country, pass a budget. RN and LFI start with censure. Then, everything will be played out with a few dozen votes. The executive must also keep its word without reigniting social anger. A survival cabinet, yes. Temporary, perhaps. Decisive, surely.