Resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on October 6, 2025: a month after his appointment, the executive enters a gray area. Lacking a majority and renouncing the 49.3, the executive finds itself facing a fragmented Parliament. RN pushes for the dissolution of the National Assembly, LFI demands the examination of Emmanuel Macron’s impeachment (art. 68); CAC 40 down more than 2%, markets retreating. What outcomes and costs for the State and the budget?
The day’s events: a swift resignation at Matignon
Less than a month after his appointment, Sébastien Lecornu, Prime Minister since September 9, 2025, presented his resignation this Monday, October 6, 2025, which was promptly accepted by Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic. The announcement comes the day after a partial presentation of the government team, heavily criticized for its continuity. At Matignon, the outgoing head of government explained the "impossibility of governing without a majority and without 49.3". However, he stands by a line of renouncing the 49.3 which he presented as a "break".
At the same time, the oppositions are getting ready for battle: Rassemblement National (RN) for a dissolution of the National Assembly and a "return to the polls"; La France Insoumise (LFI) for the immediate examination of Emmanuel Macron’s impeachment (art. 68). On the markets, the day is turbulent: CAC 40 down more than 2%. Additionally, French banks (BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole) are plummeting. Furthermore, the euro is down against the dollar.
Why the structure collapsed so quickly
In his account, Sébastien Lecornu mentions a fragmented Parliament, refusals to compromise, and the decision to turn the page on 49.3 as so many locks. In short, without a majority and without a constitutional tool to force the adoption of a budget, the machine stalled. Moreover, it is faced with partners who "play solo". Signals came from everywhere: LR is reluctant, RN wants to return to the vote, the left pushes for presidential impeachment.
The timing did the rest: barely the list of ministers sketched on October 5, the rebellions thrived. Bruno Retailleau and François-Xavier Bellamy reassessed LR’s participation, denouncing the absence of "break". Around 10:45 AM, the admission of failure falls: "one cannot be Prime Minister when the conditions are not met," summarizes Lecornu.
The battle of the camps: dissolution, impeachment, recomposition
RN urges Emmanuel Macron to give the country a voice. Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen advocate dissolution as the "only wise solution" to get out of the in-between. LFI, through Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Mathilde Panot, demands the immediate examination of impeachment under article 68 of the Constitution, considering that the "chaos" comes from the Élysée.
In the center and on the right, LR maintains ambiguity: conditional participation, threat of withdrawal, and a discourse on "budgetary responsibility". The ecologists and socialists demand guarantees on the social climate and public accounts.
Three scenarios for the Élysée: new Prime Minister, dissolution, resignation
1) Appoint a new Prime Minister. A classic hypothesis, but the casting is constrained by parliamentary arithmetic. A "techno-political" profile could attempt to build a negotiated minority government option, constrained by parliamentary arithmetic, in exchange for programmatic concessions (purchasing power, taxation, pensions, green investment). Major risk: accelerated wear and censure if the oppositions unite.
2) Dissolve the National Assembly. Article 12 sets strict deadlines for organizing the election and convening the new Assembly. Politically, dissolution would provide some breathing room but without a guarantee of a majority. Risks: prolonged uncertainty, financial cost of the election, market volatility.
3) Presidential resignation. Technically possible but very unlikely: it would open an early presidential election, with a short campaign, in a fractured country. Incalculable political cost, and no assured gain in stability.
What the texts say: dissolution, impeachment, 49.3
In case of dissolution, article 12 of the Constitution organizes the electoral mechanics (consultations, election deadlines, Assembly meeting). In case of impeachment, article 68 provides for a heavy procedure: admissibility, vote by both Houses by a two-thirds majority, then High Court. At this level of requirement, the outcome depends on a very broad national consensus, rarely achieved. Finally, the famous 49.3 that Lecornu said he would abandon remains a framed tool: it allows adopting a text without a vote, unless a motion of censure is adopted.
The markets falter: CAC 40, banks, and euro
The session took a defensive turn: around 10:00 AM (CEST), the CAC 40 drops a little more than 2%, while French banks (BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole) fall by 4 to 6%. The euro retreats by about 0.7% against the dollar. French government bond yields are tightening (spread with Germany rising), reflecting an increased risk premium on French assets. This movement remains intraday and may evolve at the close, but it illustrates the sensitivity of domestic assets to political uncertainty.
Beyond the immediate shock, the investors’ thread is clear: without a stabilized 2026 budget horizon, without a clear majority and without a constitutional "toolbox", predictability is lacking. Hence sectoral rotations towards defensive stocks and a retreat of mid caps exposed to the domestic cycle.
The story of an unusual Monday
Morning, Paris. At Matignon, the air is fresh, faces closed. In front of the gates, microphones and cameras gather. The outgoing Prime Minister steps forward a few weighed words, the voice without emphasis: "One does not govern without a majority". In the silence, one hears pens, then phone alerts. Resignation accepted. End of a swift chapter.
Noon. Parliamentary groups respond from a distance. RN demands a return to the polls. LFI insists: the impeachment must be examined. On the right, LR temporizes, says it "assumes the break" but reassesses its presence. On screens, the CAC wavers, the euro steps back.
Afternoon. At the Élysée, the mechanics of names are set in motion. A consensus profile? A public finance technician? A politician capable of speaking to the social left as well as the budgetary right? Discreet hearings follow one another. The window of opportunity is short.
Negotiated minority: method and red lines
Governing in minority is not unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. The method requires:
- Tight legislative agendas, calibrated text by text.
- Clearly defined compromise perimeters (purchasing power, housing, health, energy).
- Identified political guarantors in each group to secure key votes.
- Procedural transparency (leaders’ conferences, public calendar, progress reports).
The red lines concern taxation, notably tax increases and exceptional contributions. Additionally, they include pensions and purchasing power, especially indexations. Furthermore, they touch on investment, such as energy sobriety and infrastructure. Without budgetary credibility, parliamentary confidence and market confidence slip away.
Costs, political risks… and budgetary
Each scenario has its cost:
- New Prime Minister: opportunity cost (lost time), risk of censure and rapid wear.
- Dissolution: direct cost of the election, interregnum of at least 6 to 8 weeks, risks of forced cohabitation or a new ungovernable Parliament.
- Presidential resignation: major institutional cost, campaign in full economic uncertainty.
On the budget, the interest note rises if the 2026 trajectory remains unclear. In the short term, the priority will be to secure essential expenditures such as education, health, and security. Furthermore, transition investment, including energy renovation, railways, and low-carbon industries, will be crucial. Additionally, a credible debt reduction strategy will need to be outlined.
The Ecostylia angle: political stability, climate stability
A minimum of political stability conditions the climate stability of public action. Without clear leadership, thermal renovation plans face difficulties. Similarly, the acceleration of clean mobility is hindered by shifting priorities. Furthermore, the greening of industry faces these same obstacles. Additionally, energy planning also encounters this lack of clarity. Local authorities await stable multi-year frameworks to undertake projects (schools, transport, networks). For companies, visibility on taxonomy, decarbonization aids, and capacity markets is a decisive investment factor.
In the immediate term, the appointment of a head of government is crucial. Indeed, they must be able to lock in a few important milestones. For example, the green budget and energy tenders are essential. Similarly, the building schedule requires particular attention. Thus, these actions would prevent a blank year for the transition.
What awaits the Élysée in the coming hours
- Stabilization message: calendar, method, budgetary direction.
- Rapid consultations: party leaders, Assembly presidents, social partners.
- Institutional choice: new Prime Minister or dissolution.
- Signal to markets: trajectory of debt and expenditures, horizon of non-conflictual reforms.
What to fear?
The resignation of Sébastien Lecornu clarifies less than it reveals: without a majority, without 49.3, without a government pact, the executive stumbles on arithmetic. Among three narrow doors, the Élysée must choose the least risky for the State, the economy, and the ecological transition. One thing is certain: stability will be costly, but instability already costs more.