The conviction of Marine Le Pen to two years in prison has a major impact. Additionally, the five years of ineligibility disrupt the French political landscape. The decision of the Paris court includes a provisional execution. Consequently, it deprives the main figure of the far right of a candidacy for the 2027 presidential election. This judgment occurred in an already tense climate. Indeed, the question of the independence of the judiciary and the respect for institutions was widely debated. Marine Le Pen, a central figure of the Rassemblement national (RN), had embodied for years an opposition to the establishment. Consequently, she gathered a diverse electorate going well beyond the traditional far-right sympathizers.
This immediate ineligibility places the RN in a strategic impasse. Thus, the party loses its leading figure, three-time presidential candidate, capable of attracting both popular voters and a portion of the middle classes. This absence opens a void that no other leader of the RN can fill without contestation. Moreover, it casts a shadow over the entire party apparatus. As a result, the party now struggles to define a clear strategy in the face of this judicial thunderbolt.
A crisis communication centered on victimization
In response, the party’s communication is organized around a victimization discourse. Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, speaks of a "democratic scandal." He talks about a justice system used to sideline a political opponent. According to him, this decision illustrates a relentless desire of the ruling elites to muzzle an opposition force that, in Bardella‘s words, represents "the people." These carefully chosen talking points are repeated in a loop on social media and by party officials.
The tone used aims to mobilize an electoral base attached to the idea of a "system" oppressing the opposition. The message is clear: it is not only Marine Le Pen who is targeted, but the "will of the people." This rhetoric resonates with the most convinced activists and sympathizers, but it leaves many observers perplexed. However, it allows the RN to divert attention from the alleged facts. Thus, the debate focuses on a supposed confrontation between elites and citizens.
However, this strategy has its limits. By directly attacking the judicial institution, the RN risks worsening its image. Indeed, it shows a systematic distrust of the rule of law. Yet, this stance may worry moderate voters that the party has been trying to attract for several years. These voters are often sensitive to issues of probity and ethics. Thus, they might turn away from a party perceived as being at war with the fundamental principles of the Republic. Excessive polarization could also reduce the possibilities of gaining new votes beyond the circle of the convinced.
A judicial turning point with heavy consequences
The alleged facts date back to the period 2004-2016. According to the court, European funds intended for parliamentary assistants were used to finance internal party activities. The damage is estimated at nearly 7 million euros. The seriousness of these accusations, long considered a sword of Damocles, now bursts into the open. This verdict, heavy with symbols, shows that the RN has not succeeded in making people forget the affairs of the past. Indeed, this is true despite its strategy of demonization.
This conviction comes as the RN was trying to establish its respectability. Indeed, under the impetus of Marine Le Pen, the party had begun a process of "dédiabolisation" since 2011. The strategy aimed to make people forget the excesses of the Jean-Marie Le Pen era. This judgment thus strikes this normalization effort. It highlights the internal fragilities of a party. However, the latter has not entirely convinced that it had turned the page. Indeed, this is true despite its electoral advances. The most recent voters, often from the middle classes, might perceive this affair as a return to outdated practices.
A battle for narrative control
The party tries to impose its reading of the event. It speaks of an "institutional coup," relayed by elected officials like Frédéric Falcon. The terms used are heavy with meaning. They aim to transform a corruption case into a confrontation between elites and people. This strategy relies on the idea that a large part of the French share a growing distrust of traditional institutions.
In parallel, the RN is betting on digital mobilization. An online petition, shared by Bardella, seeks to transform militant emotion into a demonstration of symbolic strength. This type of communication marks an attempt to reclaim the debate, in a moment of high tension. However, the question remains open: is this message only intended to galvanize the base, or does it also seek to attract new segments of the electorate? In this context, the challenge for the RN is to broaden its audience. However, it must retain its core electorate, which requires a fine mastery of media codes.
The party facing the challenge of succession
Deprived of its emblematic candidate, the RN must consider a strategic reorganization. Jordan Bardella seems to be the natural successor. Already party president, he has strong media capital. But his name does not offer the same electoral solidity as that of the Le Pen. Could he, in such a troubled context, embody continuity while injecting new dynamics?
The situation could also reopen the door to Marion Maréchal, who has recently drawn closer to her aunt. Although marginal on the partisan level, she retains a media aura. She could disrupt Bardella‘s plans, especially if he is caught up in the European assistants’ affair. This potential rivalry highlights the latent divisions within the RN. Moreover, it represents a challenge for the cohesion of a movement accustomed to identifying with a single charismatic figure. In this context, the question of succession goes beyond simple electoral issues: it engages the very future of the party.
A risky but mobilizing opportunity
Despite the shock, this conviction offers the RN an opportunity to present itself once again as an anti-system force. It is a register in which it has excelled for decades. The affair can be exploited to strengthen militant adherence and stir the anger of a distrustful electorate. But this tactic carries significant risks: by playing on emotions and polarizing the debate, the party could accentuate internal and external fractures.
But the operation is delicate. It requires channeling indignation without falling into extremism. Yet, the judicial conviction makes this exercise perilous, especially in a context where public opinion remains attached to the independence of the judiciary. The mobilization attempts must therefore be accompanied by a more subtle discourse. This must be capable of uniting without alienating still hesitant voters. The success of this strategy will largely depend on the RN‘s ability to adapt. Indeed, the political context is constantly evolving.
Towards a change of cycle?
The judicial fall of Marine Le Pen may mark the end of a cycle. Indeed, this concerns the French far right. The Rassemblement national enters a zone of uncertainty. It must now choose between a difficult recentralization and a return to radicalism. This choice could well determine the future not only of the RN, but also of the entire French political landscape.
The gamble is twofold: maintain mobilization without losing credibility. And prepare a political succession capable of ensuring the continuity of the movement. A challenge that European populist right observes closely, in a context where electoral balances are more fragile than ever. Eyes are on the RN‘s ability to reinvent itself. Moreover, it must maintain its influence. Furthermore, it seeks a new way to weigh sustainably on the national debate.
