Credits: Gregory Varnum / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 4.0.
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) surprised the markets on September 10, 2025: after results released the day before, the group reported $14.9 billion in revenue, booming cloud growth, and a $455 billion backlog. Larry Ellison and Safra Catz are promising giant AI contracts and an acceleration in data centers. What remains is to measure the financial, competitive, and environmental cost.
Results and RPO: The Figure That Changes Everything
On September 9, 2025, Oracle posted solid results: $14.9 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $1.47. [EPS = earnings per share, an indicator that relates net income to the number of shares outstanding]
But the figure that upends expectations is elsewhere: a backlog rising to $455 billion. The group cites multi-year contracts signed with three major AI customers, driven by growing demand for computing power.
These amounts, rare in enterprise tech, do not yet say how quickly they will turn into revenue. Oracle is promising a rapid ramp-up of its cloud infrastructure by 2030, a timeline dependent on chips, power, and local permits.
Larry Ellison And Safra Catz, The Architecture Of Power
The group is still shaped by its leadership duo: Larry Ellison, co-founder and chairman (also CTO), the strategist behind the shift toward AI, and Safra Catz, the CEO known for financial discipline and execution. Ellison sets the vision of “everything for AI infrastructure,” while Catz closes the deals and directs investments. Their complementarity, proven over more than twenty years, sheds light on Oracle’s repositioning: from database champion to supplier of AI computing capacity.
Ellison cultivates a provocative style and bold tech bets, while Safra Catz, a former investment banker, is known for being austere and cost-obsessed. Two temperaments, one obsession: executing quickly.
“We should be connected with everyone.” Larry Ellison, on multi-cloud.
“AI is a driver of cloud adoption.” Safra Catz.
“Mega-Deals” Still Opaque: Caution
The centerpiece is called RPO: these are firm revenue commitments spread over several years. Oracle says it has closed four giant contracts with three players in the sector, all hungry for GPUs and power. In the context of the rumors, some media outlets are talking about a massive deal with OpenAI. That agreement would reach several hundred billion dollars over a five-year period. But these spectacular figures have never been publicly confirmed, caution is warranted. No official confirmation has been given by Oracle; the group simply highlights the unprecedented size of the commitments and their multi-cloud nature. This caution is warranted: the scale of these amounts would defy historical benchmarks in enterprise cloud and, by itself, concentrates part of the risk of overinterpretation.
The Multi-Cloud Bet To Accelerate
Rather than exclusivity, Oracle is multiplying bridges with its rivals. The goal: let companies already on AWS, Microsoft, or Google add Oracle services without migrating everything. This flexibility reduces lock-in fear and speeds up the signing of AI-specific contracts. In these contracts, available capacity is paramount.
The bet is aggressive but clear: sell a place in customers’ architecture, even if that means coexisting with better-established competitors.
AWS, Microsoft, Google: The Response
The longtime leaders still hold most of the market share. But Oracle’s push on deliverable AI capacity is putting pressure on them: the battle is no longer just about list price, but about access to GPUs, electricity, and contractual guarantees. For customers, those factors now matter just as much as technical performance.
Oracle On The Stock Market: A Surge Unseen In 30 Years
On September 10, 2025, Oracle shares (NYSE: ORCL) rose more than 35% intraday, one of their strongest gains since 1992, bringing the company’s market cap closer to $1 trillion. Larry Ellison’s fortune briefly surpassed or matched Elon Musk’s, rankings that are volatile by nature.
The Energy Cost Of A GPU Arms Race
Powering compute farms requires megawatts and lots of water for cooling. Site selection, the energy mix, and heat reuse become factors of both cost and acceptability. Oracle promises optimizations, but the equation remains physical.
Regulation: Interoperability And “Reversibility”
In Europe, the Data Act imposes rules on switching providers (“reversibility”), limits certain exit fees, and promotes the interoperability of cloud services. In the United Kingdom, the competition authority has expanded its review of the cloud market, pointing to barriers to multi-cloud. This regulatory undercurrent aims to rebalance the power relationship between providers and customers. For Oracle, which positions itself as a multi-cloud enabler, this can be a competitive advantage as long as it can guarantee long-term data portability and contractual protection for customers.
Data Center Geopolitics
Regions offering decarbonized electricity, land, and reliable supply chains will attract new campuses. Elsewhere, projects may slow down or become more expensive. Europe is betting on data portability and contract reversibility, a framework that can benefit those who truly practice multi-cloud.
International Angle: China, Japan, And The Geopolitics Of Capacity
China. The market relies on Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud; U.S. AI chip export controls limit access to advanced GPUs. American-style mega-deals are unlikely there in the short term.
Japan. Tokyo is subsidizing new data centers and securing GPUs; local demand is intensifying around generative AI. With its Tokyo and Osaka regions, OCI can capture that growth through multi-cloud.
LightOn, A Different Pace For European AI
LightOn (Euronext Growth Paris) is moving at a different pace. On September 9, 2025, the company announced first-half revenue of €710,000 (+15% year over year) and ARR of €1.23 million at the end of June. Management nonetheless lowered its 2025 target to €3–4 million, citing long sales cycles for its Paradigm platform. The stock fell about 12% the next day.
The snapshot says something about the market: while hyperscalers are fighting over multi-year contracts for computing capacity, mid-sized European software vendors are building recurring revenue more slowly, customer by customer. A two-speed market that raises questions about these players’ ability to finance infrastructure and plug into major ecosystems.
What Could Still Go Wrong
The amounts and beneficiaries of the “mega-deals” remain unknown: Oracle is not publishing the details, and the figures circulating have not been confirmed. Caution is warranted.
The pace will depend on material factors: availability of GPUs, access to electricity, and obtaining local permits. Those are what will determine the real pace of construction beyond the promises.
What remains to be clarified is the quality of the backlog: what share is legally committed and executable, what the average duration is, and how sensitive it is to exit clauses?
What Stakeholders Need To Anticipate
For companies, the issue is to demand clear reversibility clauses and SLAs, while designing portable architectures.
For public authorities, the task is to ensure interoperability and effective multi-cloud, balancing the welcome of data centers against environmental constraints.
For investors, the key question remains the conversion of RPO into cash flow, investment discipline, and the sustainability of energy costs.
Beyond The Trading Session, The Real Test
Stock market euphoria does not tell the whole story. The test will be industrial: construction delays, available megawatts, and securing GPUs. If Oracle delivers on its promise, the entire digital economy will have to contend with energy scarcity as a strategic variable.