Brent Fell Back Below $100 on Wednesday, April 8, After Donald Trump Announced a Two-Week Truce With Iran. According to Reuters, around 08:05 GMT, Brent was down 13.8% and WTI 15.4%. The market immediately read the same signal: if shipping becomes possible again in the Strait of Hormuz, the scenario of a sustained shock to global supply loses credibility. But this stock-market relief is not enough to eliminate the geopolitical risk, nor to guarantee a rapid effect on France fuel prices.
Why Brent Dropped After the Truce Announcement
The move is first mechanical. For weeks, prices had included a high risk premium tied to the threat of a prolonged closure of Hormuz, a central chokepoint for Gulf oil. Reuters reports that Donald Trump based his announcement on a key condition: a “complete, immediate and safe” reopening of the strait. For traders, that prospect alone is enough to remove part of the fear built into contracts.
The market is also correcting the previous days’ panic. Before the announcement, investors had priced in a long crisis scenario, with persistently disrupted flows and higher maritime costs. When an extreme risk looks a bit less likely, the correction is often brutal. That explains the size of the drop seen in Brent and WTI, much more than any on-the-ground improvement already observed.
This reaction remains consistent with Hormuz’s strategic weight. According to the International Energy Agency, about 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products transited that passage in 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration likewise notes that this corridor represents a decisive share of global hydrocarbon flows. As soon as a blockage appears likely to ease, the market immediately re-evaluates the risk of shortage.
However, the crude drop does not mean a return to normal has already begun. Reuters attributes to analysts the day’s central idea: part of the risk premium dissipates, but not all of it. The market is not pricing in consolidated peace. It is pricing in a slightly better probability of volumes restarting that are currently constrained.
The Strait Of Hormuz Remains The Truce’s Blind Spot
This is where geopolitical reading becomes essential again. Navigation through the strait has not automatically become smooth just because a truce was announced. The International Energy Agency noted at the end of March that a return to stable flows depended on several factors. Indeed, a regular resumption of transit is necessary. In addition, insurers and physical protection mechanisms for ships are also needed. In short: reopening on paper is not enough; shipowners, charterers and insurers must consider the passage practicable again.
The International Maritime Organization indicated on April 2 that more than 20,000 seafarers remained affected in the region. This followed a series of attacks on merchant vessels. That context helps explain why nervousness persists. Even if the prospect of calm is real, the costs of war and delays remain. Insurers’ hesitations do not vanish in a few hours.
There are early signs of recovery, but they remain too limited to conclude normalization. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that London insurers did not expect a quick restart of trade. Indeed, despite the ceasefire agreement, normal trade levels were not expected immediately. Again, the signal is useful: the oil decline penalizes an improvement in expectations, not a complete restoration of the logistics chain.
France, like other European countries, has so far mostly insisted on freedom of navigation and the need for de-escalation. However, it has not emphasized the idea of a crisis already closed. Moreover, a joint statement published by the Élysée on March 19 with several partners called on Iran to stop its threats. Attacks on commercial shipping must also stop. No official element consulted on April 8, however, allows one to state that Paris already anticipates a durable return to normal in flows.
Possible Impact On Fuels In France
The French angle calls for caution. Yes, a sharp drop in Brent can eventually ease pressure on fuel prices. But that does not transmit instantly or uniformly. Between crude prices and what motorists pay, several factors come into play. Indeed, refining, logistics costs, taxation and distributors’ adjustment delays influence that price.
This is especially true for diesel, highly sensitive to international tensions. Indeed, it also depends on refined product markets, not just crude. Aviation is also exposed: jet fuel reacts to Gulf geopolitics, but also to supply-chain conditions and insurance premiums. In the coming days, it would therefore be excessive to promise a visible and lasting drop at the pump in France. Indeed, that conclusion would be based only on the April 8 trading session.
French public data also show mainly a continuously monitored pricing system, not a guaranteed drop. The official fuel prices portal lists station-by-station rates and notes that adjustment is gradual. The professional petroleum committee simultaneously tracks sector activity and the placing on the market of products in France. These tools make it possible to measure the real effect on the ground, but not to deduce a certain relief for households in advance.
The issue extends well beyond gas stations. If energy prices stabilize, pressure on road transport, aviation and certain industrial costs can ease. Conversely, if the truce fails, oil could rise again. That could reignite imported inflation. European governments are precisely trying to contain that inflation. For a country like France, the political sensitivity of the energy question remains high.
Immediate Relief, But Not The End Of The Crisis
The April 8 session therefore tells two things at once. On one hand, the market estimates that the worst may no longer be the central scenario: a reopening of Hormuz, even partial, reduces the risk of an extreme supply shock. On the other, almost everything that matters next remains conditional: the strength of the truce, real ship security, insurance costs, and the ability of flows to become regular again.
That is why the Brent drop should not be read as a verdict that the crisis is over. It reflects a loosening of panic. It validates neither the stability of the ceasefire nor an assured drop in France fuel prices. In oil matters, especially around Hormuz, a few words can send prices plunging in a morning; only safe, lasting transits will show whether this easing has a future.