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Brent crude fell back below $100 on Wednesday, April 8, after Donald Trump announced a two-week truce with Iran. According to Reuters, around 08:05 GMT, Brent was down 13.8% and WTI 15.4%. The market immediately read the same signal: if traffic becomes possible again in the Strait of Hormuz, the scenario of a lasting shock to global oil supply loses credibility. But this stock market relief is not enough to erase the geopolitical risk, or to guarantee a quick impact on France fuel prices.
Why Brent Is Falling After The Truce Announcement
The move is first and foremost mechanical. For several weeks, prices had been factoring in a high risk premium tied to the threat of a prolonged closure of Hormuz, a key transit point for Gulf oil. Reuters reports that Donald Trump’s announcement hinges on one key condition: a “full, immediate and safe” reopening of the strait. For traders, that prospect alone is enough to remove part of the fear built into contracts.
The market is also correcting the rush of the previous days. Before this announcement, investors had built in the assumption of a long crisis, with flows persistently constrained and higher shipping costs. When an extreme risk seems a little less likely, the correction is often sharp. That explains the scale of the drop seen in Brent and WTI, far more than any improvement already visible on the ground.
This reaction remains consistent with the strategic importance of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products passed through this passage in 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, for its part, notes that this corridor accounts for a decisive share of global hydrocarbon flows. As soon as a blockage seems likely to ease, the market immediately reassesses the risk of shortages.
That said, the drop in crude does not mean a return to normal is already underway. Reuters attributes to analysts the day’s central point: part of the risk premium is fading, but not all of it. The market is not pricing in a consolidated peace. It is pricing in a slightly better chance of seeing volumes resume that are currently constrained.
The Strait Of Hormuz Remains The Truce’s Blind Spot
This is where the geopolitical reading becomes essential again. Shipping through the strait has not automatically become smooth again just because a truce was announced. The International Energy Agency was still stressing at the end of March that a return to stable flows depended on several factors. In fact, a regular resumption of transit is necessary. In addition, shipping insurance and physical protection mechanisms for vessels are also needed. In short: reopening on paper is not enough; shipowners, charterers, and insurers must consider the passage usable again.
The International Maritime Organization said as recently as April 2 that more than 20,000 seafarers remained affected in the region. In fact, this followed a series of attacks on merchant ships. That context helps explain why nerves remain frayed. Even if the prospect of calm is real, war costs and delays persist. In addition, insurers’ hesitation does not disappear in a few hours.
There are early signs of a pickup, but they remain too limited to conclude that things are back to normal. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that London insurers did not expect a rapid restart in trade. In fact, despite the ceasefire agreement, a return to normal trade levels was not expected immediately. Here again, the signal is useful: lower oil prices reflect an improvement in expectations, not a full restoration of the logistics chain.
France, like other European countries, has so far mainly stressed freedom of navigation and the need for de-escalation. However, it has not emphasized the idea that the crisis is already over. In addition, a joint statement published by the Élysée on March 19 with several partners called on Iran to stop its threats. Attacks on commercial shipping must also stop. No official information reviewed on April 8, however, allows us to say that Paris is already expecting a durable return to normal in flows.
What Impact Could There Be On France Fuel Prices
The France angle calls for caution. Yes, a sharp drop in Brent can eventually ease pressure on fuel prices. But that does not happen instantly or evenly. Between crude oil prices and what drivers pay at the pump, several factors come into play. In fact, refining, logistics costs, taxes, and the time it takes retailers to adjust all influence the price.
This is especially true for diesel, which is highly sensitive to international tensions. In fact, it also depends on refined product markets, not just crude. Aviation is also exposed: jet fuel reacts to Gulf geopolitics, but also to the state of supply chains and insurance premiums. In the coming days, it would therefore be excessive to promise a visible and lasting drop at the pump in France. In fact, that would be based solely on the April 8 session.
French public data also shows a system of continuously tracked prices, not a guaranteed decline. The official fuel prices portal lists prices station by station and notes that adjustments happen gradually. The professional oil committee also tracks sector activity and product consumption in France. These tools make it possible to measure the real-world effect, but not to infer in advance any certain relief for households.
The issue in fact goes far beyond gas stations. If energy prices stabilize, pressure on road transport, aviation, and certain industrial costs may ease. Conversely, if the truce fails, oil could rise again. That could rekindle imported inflation. European governments are precisely trying to contain this inflation. For a country like France, the political sensitivity of the energy issue remains high.
Immediate Relief, But Not The End Of The Crisis
The April 8 session therefore tells two stories at once. On one hand, the market believes the worst may no longer be the central scenario: a reopening of Hormuz, even partial, reduces the risk of an extreme supply shock. On the other hand, almost everything that matters next remains conditional: the strength of the truce, the real safety of ships, insurance costs, and the ability of flows to become regular again.
That is why Brent’s decline should not be read as a verdict that the crisis is over. It reflects a easing of panic. It does not confirm either the stability of the ceasefire or a guaranteed drop in France fuel prices. In oil, especially around Hormuz, a few words can send prices plunging in a single morning; only safe and lasting passage will show whether this easing has a future.
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