The new wave of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump is disrupting the commercial order. Presented as a means to protect national employment, this offensive has long targeted the historical allies of the United States. France, the economic pivot of Europe, thus finds itself on the front line.
Trump defends these measures in the name of industrial sovereignty. However, his decisions evoke the monetary tensions of the 1970s. At that time, the dollar was depreciating. Moreover, Europe feared the rise of American protectionism. Thus, France, whose exports to the United States exceeded 46 billion euros in 2023, now sees several of its key industries threatened.
French wine put to the test
French wines, champagnes, and spirits are subject to a 20% tax. This increase hits a sector already shaken by the pandemic, inflation, and foreign competition. Yet, the United States remains the main market outside Europe for these products.
Moreover, French wine regions, such as Champagne or Burgundy, rely on an American clientele attached to prestige. Some companies, including Rémy Cointreau, anticipate a double-digit drop in their sales across the Atlantic. This threat is reminiscent of the early 1990s when the American recession weakened imports of French wines.
Luxury and beauty under pressure
The luxury industry, a spearhead of French influence, is also navigating this turbulent zone. LVMH, Kering, and L’Oréal face an unpredictable increase in logistical costs. These groups, accustomed to smooth distribution, must now contend with heavier tariffs. Indeed, this concerns a market representing more than 25% of global luxury sales.
Thus, some high-end brands fear a decline in their appeal. Moreover, currency fluctuations also complicate pricing. Leaders closely monitor the progress of negotiations, without ruling out a strategic rebalancing towards Asia or the Middle East.
Industry and SMEs on the front line
Beyond the symbols of French expertise, the national industrial fabric faces a brutal shock. Exporting SMEs, less equipped to handle the surge in customs tariffs, risk losing valuable contracts. This challenge is compounded by persistent inflation and high energy costs.
Some sectors, such as agri-food or aerospace, recall other transatlantic standoffs. Thus, the Boeing-Airbus crisis has already shown the sensitivity of French industry to American decisions. Today, the multiplication of trade barriers acts as a revealer of the structural weaknesses of the French economy.
Forgotten historical precedents
Franco-American trade relations have experienced other clashes. In 1983, the threat of American surcharges on European steel had already raised alarm in Paris. Similarly, the Multifiber Arrangement, in force between 1974 and 2004, imposed quotas on French textile products. These precedents remind us that France remains vulnerable to decisions from the White House. Indeed, this is true even when it shows a surplus in certain sectors.
Some historians believe that this fragility also stems from the central role of the dollar. The cycles of the American economy influence global demand and create a domino effect on European industries. Thus, when Washington chooses the path of protectionism, France has little room to maneuver to escape it.
A French response in preparation
In response to this offensive, France is not limited to declarations. The executive is considering several countermeasures: targeted aid to struggling sectors, strengthening regional distribution channels, and signing bilateral agreements outside the Western zone.
Thus, India, Brazil, or West Africa become strategic alternatives. However, these markets require a fine-tuned adaptation of products, as well as more agile economic diplomacy. Representatives of the agricultural sector advocate for better-calibrated trade treaties. Indeed, this aims to contain dependence on American fluctuations.
An opportunity to reindustrialize
This crisis offers a moment of awareness. Relying heavily on imports or distant markets weakens economic sovereignty. Some industrialists advocate for the relocation of certain activities. Betting more on local production could strengthen productive sovereignty. However, this requires investing in skills and modernizing factories.
However, this choice implies a profound transformation. Chambers of commerce remind us that reclaiming the industrial apparatus requires sustained budgetary support. Moreover, a clear political direction is necessary. In a country where industry still represents nearly 10% of GDP, this shift could reshape the economic structure. Indeed, this transformation would deeply influence existing economic sectors.
Emmanuel Macron and the geopolitical equation
President Emmanuel Macron, faced with this challenge, urgently meets with social partners and business leaders. His goal is to mitigate short-term impacts while preserving the relationship with Washington. Since the end of World War II, Paris and Washington have maintained a strategic alliance, despite occasional divergences.
Today, protectionist threats push the Élysée to consolidate its national priorities. It is necessary to imagine a more resilient economy**, less subject to American political shifts or global financial turbulence. Some advisors emphasize the importance of a united Europe, capable of negotiating on equal terms with the American superpower.
A possible diplomatic showdown
The European Commission could intervene to defend the interests of the Twenty-Seven. Trade treaties and customs policy often fall under community competence. Thus, Brussels is preparing a possible common response while seeking to defuse the escalation.
Moreover, exchanges between France, Germany, and Italy aim to develop a coordinated European stance. Europeans wish to avoid isolation in a conflict where Washington would unilaterally dictate the rules. Furthermore, the World Trade Organization, weakened, struggles to arbitrate this type of dispute, further complicating the situation.
A shock redefining the transatlantic balance
The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is not merely a publicity stunt. It signals the emergence of a new economic order. France, affected in its key sectors and industrial structure, must react with pragmatism and ambition. This conflict could become the catalyst for an industrial and diplomatic resurgence, provided that national strengths are leveraged. Moreover, it is crucial to negotiate without yielding to American pressures.
