In 48 hours, Emmanuel Macron must appoint the new Prime Minister before the evening of 10/10/2025. In Paris, between the Élysée and Matignon, Sébastien Lecornu assures that "a path is possible" without dissolution and is consulting to build a stability platform. The challenge is to secure the 2026 budget and avoid a parliamentary deadlock. Indeed, Article 47 imposes a tight schedule. Moreover, each party sets its red lines.
Power dynamics: who will be the Prime Minister?
Facing a weakened Ensemble, the National Assembly remains a fragmented terrain. RN (Jordan Bardella), LFI (Jean-Luc Mélenchon), PS (Boris Vallaud, president of the socialist group in the National Assembly), Ecologists (Marine Tondelier), LR (Bruno Retailleau, president of the Les Républicains party): each holds their line. Some demand immediate elections, others advocate for a circumstantial cohabitation, all bargaining their abstentions or conditional support.
In the background, the contentious issue: pensions. The 2023 reform raising the legal age to 64 has left scars. Sébastien Lecornu suggests that one can "restore a democratic debate" on this text. This means, at best, opening adjustments without renouncing the backbone, to lift vetoes.
Budget 2026: the key to the vault
Everything converges towards the finance law. Without the 2026 budget, it’s decree and constrained management. The Constitution (Article 47) frames the procedure. The government has 70 days to pass the finance law. After that, it can implement the budget by ordinance. However, the signals sent to the markets matter. The initial deficit target was around 4.6–4.7% of GDP. Then, it was adjusted to "below 5%" of GDP in the recent speech. Moreover, the debt reduction trajectory must be credible. The executive hopes to rally around two promises: stability and predictability. Key words that reassure Bercy, speak to European partners, and can convince reformist oppositions to not block everything.
Lecornu’s mission: "commando operation in a corridor without light"
The mission entrusted to Lecornu is akin to parliamentary diplomacy: mapping the minimum points of agreement, identifying each group’s red lines, building a foundational text on which a tightened government could govern piecemeal. A corridor geopolitics is emerging: PS and Ecologists are open to discussing social and climate measures. Meanwhile, LR focuses on the budgetary course and public order. At the same time, the centrists oscillate between loyalty and fatigue of being minorities.
In this institutional twilight, one thread: avoiding dissolution which would open an uncertain cycle and, according to polls, favorable to the hardest oppositions. 48 hours to avoid a leap into the void.
The red lines of the parties
- RN: quick elections, purchasing power, security. Little appetite to support an executive without direct control.
- LFI: pensions, minimum wage, public services. Frontal opposition and likely motions.
- PS: targeted social measures, housing, health, school. Openness to abstentions if clear gestures are made.
- Ecologists: climate transition, green investments, conditionality of aid.
- LR: budgetary rigor, order, immigration. Votes on a case-by-case basis if the course is clear.
The minimalist scenario
The most likely scenario consists of three points:
- Tightened government with a Prime Minister of relative consensus.
- Variable geometry parliamentary contract: votes case by case, negotiated abstentions, prioritized texts (budget, purchasing power, energy security).
- Symbolic gestures on pensions include consultation and adjustments on long careers and hardship. Additionally, a green package is calibrated to attract ecologist abstentions.
This scenario does not resolve the regime crisis, but it freezes the instability. Consequently, it gains the months necessary for the 2026 budget.
What could derail the equation
- A divisive appointment that tightens the opposition.
- A budgetary agenda deemed too austere by the left and too permissive by the right.
- A political accident (motion, scandal, internal rebellion) in the weeks that follow.
Mastered irony, caution advised
The sequences of the "mercato" and civil society are treated here with an ironic tone. They speak of a governmental crisis and a democratic fatigue: after months of tension, the country dreams of a shortcut. But the State remains a procedural machine: it is votes, texts, and lines that authorize or not the action.
48 hours: it’s little, and it’s a lot to close a crisis without dissolution. The continuation will depend on a name, a speech, and a few figures engraved in a finance law.
Holding the course
At a time when political time is counted in hours, the essential is to hold the course: appoint, explain, budget. Matignon is not a podium, it’s a control room. If the Élysée manages to install a pilot and lock in a budgetary corridor, the autumn can still unfold without shipwreck. Otherwise, the polls await and with them a new chapter of uncertainties.