On April 13, 2024, history took a turn. Iran reacted to the attack on its consulate in Damascus. It sent a salvo of drones and missiles towards Israel. This direct strike, unprecedented since 1979, shook the chancelleries. Benjamin Netanyahu responded with a chilling promise: “We will strike those who dare to raise a hand against us.”
This is not a simple episode. It is the culmination of a creeping tension, revealing a regional order in recomposition. For more than forty years, Israel and Iran have been at odds. One defends its existence against a perceived threatening Shiite arc. The other projects itself as the pole of resistance against the West and Zionism.
Beyond the missiles, it is worldviews, power structures, and national egos that clash.
Two Israeli Hawks: Authority, War, and National Survival
Benjamin Netanyahu: The Man of a Besieged Vision
Netanyahu wants to embody an Israel obsessed with its survival, haunted by the memory of the Holocaust. Trained in Boston, having passed through the Mossad and marked by the Palestinian attacks of the 1970s, he thinks like a paranoid strategist. Every concession seems a threat to him. Every agreement, an illusion.
His leadership relies on a rhetoric of urgency. Since 2009, he has governed through fragile coalitions. Nationalist right, ultra-Orthodox, and security centrists accompany him, united by fear.
Netanyahu multiplies verbal excesses: he has called his opponents "traitors to the nation," accused the Supreme Court of being an "obstacle to the salvation of the people," and has not hesitated to ally with the most radical religious ultranationalists. He instrumentalizes crises to rule, maintaining an atmosphere of permanent siege.
Yoav Gallant: The Pragmatic General
Former commander of the Southern Front, Yoav Gallant knows Gaza, Hamas, and Hezbollah with clinical precision. Pragmatic, he defines war as a tool with operational reach. His doctrine, called "deterrence by saturation," advocates massive, brief, and localized strikes.
Gallant remains discreet. But in the shadows, he imposes his military vision. He maintains direct relations with the IDF, Mossad, and Aman, often bypassing politics. Some see him as a counterbalance to Netanyahu. Others as a soulless executor.
The Iranian Deep State: Between Shiite Mysticism and Asymmetric Strategy
Ali Khamenei: The Shadow Guide
The Supreme Leader is both theologian and strategist. His authority transcends institutions. Detached from political urgencies, he views the conflict as an episode of a spiritual epic.
Khamenei invokes the hidden imam while rigorously wielding military levers. He orchestrates a proxy war through Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias. His patience is his greatest strength: he views defeats as mystical sacrifices.
He surrounds himself with generals from the Revolutionary Guards. They are a mix of mystics, businessmen, and secret agents. Iranian power is a nebula where religious convictions and cold realism intersect.
Mohammad Mokhber: The Administrative Survivor
Vice-president turned head of state by accident, Mokhber is not an orator. He is a manager linked to Rafsanjani’s networks. His role? Keep the economic machine afloat. He pilots parallel circuits: black market, sanctions circumvention, drone and embargoed oil trade.
Less visible than Raisi, he is endorsed by security circles. His profile reassures clandestine markets and allied regimes.
Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron: The Two Faces of the West
Donald Trump: The Strategic Arsonist
Trump wants a strong but withdrawn America. He alternates threats and tactical retreats. Under his presidency, the assassination of Qassem Soleimani marked a turning point. At the same time, he dismantled the Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA).
His vision of the Middle East is transactional. His support for Netanyahu is total, but motivated by electoral calculation. He dreams of a posture of "ruthless savior" against the "forces of chaos."
Emmanuel Macron: Between Impotence and Diplomatic Will
Macron advocates multilateralism and de-escalation, but his room for maneuver is limited. Lacking strategic autonomy, France remains a secondary player.
He attempts dialogues with Iran. He recalls the importance of the JCPOA. But his positions, often perceived as moralizing, irritate both Tel Aviv and Tehran.
Macron surrounds himself with experienced diplomats. He multiplies calls for restraint. But behind the scenes, French diplomacy fears a marginalization of Europe.
A Region in Tension: Reconfigurations, Red Lines, and Domino Effects
The Redrawn Middle East
Saudi Arabia slows its normalization with Israel. The Riyadh-Tehran axis is stalling. The Emirates keep a low profile. Jordan fears a refugee surge. Lebanon remains on the brink.
Hezbollah strengthens its rhetoric of "sacred resistance." Syria remains a fragmented chessboard, conducive to indirect confrontations.
Russia and China: Two Empires Lurking
Moscow exports its asymmetric know-how. It sells drones, offers anti-aircraft systems, and trains regional services.
Beijing plays the card of the discreet moderator. In 2023, it facilitated an Iranian-Saudi agreement. It wants to preserve access to oil without getting bogged down in warlike alliances. But in the event of nuclear escalation, even China would be forced to come out of the shadows.
Towards a New Unstable Order
Multilateral institutions are faltering. The UN, IAEA, G7 struggle to make their voices heard. The Security Council remains blocked by cross vetoes.
Indirect diplomacy returns. Qatar, Switzerland, Oman reactivate their channels. Intelligence becomes a vector of peace as much as war.
This conflict draws a new world map. The Middle East is no longer a local arena. It is the barometer of global fractures between democracies, theocracies, and authoritarianisms.
In this test of nerves, it is not the missiles that matter most. It is the men, their ideas, their flaws, and their thirst for power.