A Centralized but Complex Power Architecture
Since its founding in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been based on a unique institutional structure. At its top sits the Supreme Leader, currently Ali Khamenei, successor to Ayatollah Khomeini. He embodies both the ultimate religious authority and the true head of state. Thus, his power surpasses that of the president or parliament. He controls the military, the judiciary, the media, and major diplomatic directions.
The Mechanisms of Authoritarian Perpetuation
To maintain its power, the Iranian regime employs a varied arsenal. Political and social repression remains a central lever. The morality police, revolutionary courts, and intelligence services neutralize any dissenting voices. Censorship targets journalists, artists, human rights activists, and even some reformist clerics.
The regime also relies on an implicit social pact: in exchange for relative stability and a strong national identity, individual freedoms are restricted. This model, weakened by economic crises, is increasingly contested.
State propaganda complements this system. Public media construct a narrative where Iran appears as a fortress besieged by Western enemies. This constant victimization aims to rally support behind the power.
Strategic Containment: Between Diplomacy and Militias
In response to American and Israeli pressures, Iran develops a multi-level deterrence strategy. First, it pursues a civil nuclear program. Officially peaceful, it worries foreign ministries. The 2015 agreement (JCPOA), followed by the American withdrawal in 2018, reignited tensions. Tehran enriches its uranium while negotiating on the margins to avoid escalation.
Next, Iran relies on a network of allied militias. The Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shia militias in Iraq or Syria form a "strategic depth." These proxies strengthen Iranian influence. Moreover, they allow for indirect diplomacy while militarily influencing regional conflicts.
Finally, cyber defense becomes a battlefield. Targeted attacks, notably against Israel or Saudi Arabia, demonstrate Iran’s growing ability to disrupt its adversaries in cyberspace. Warfare now also plays out on networks and data.
A Society Under Tension, Voices Rising
Despite repression, dissent persists. In 2022, the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman arrested by the morality police for an improperly adjusted veil, sparked a wave of revolt. Feminist slogans, student strikes, demonstrations in major cities: Iranian society, mostly young, expresses its frustration.
Economy in Crisis, Youth in Rupture
Iran suffers from severe international sanctions, particularly on oil, its major exports. Rampant inflation, youth unemployment, brain drain, and endemic corruption fuel chronic instability. The rial plummets, water and electricity shortages worsen, and strikes multiply in public sectors.
The youth, often educated but without prospects, look outward. Many attempt to leave the country. The gap between official discourse and social realities becomes abyssal. This generational divide could be one of the triggers for future change.
Figures of Dissent and Exile
Moreover, the diaspora also includes literary and artistic voices that continue this struggle far from the borders. Chahdortt Djavann, a Franco-Iranian writer naturalized French and author of the pamphlet Down with the Veils! (2003), tirelessly denounces religious obscurantism from Paris.
Meanwhile, actress Golshifteh Farahani, forced into exile after facing censorship and threats, uses her international fame to advocate for freedom of expression and women’s rights. They join many other resistant Iranian women — lawyers, journalists, academics, or athletes — who, each in their own way, keep the flame of protest alive.
A Threatened but Resilient Regime
For over forty years, the Islamic Republic has survived wars, sanctions, revolts, and international crises. It masters the art of authoritarian resilience. Its ability to adapt, repress, negotiate, and victimize itself has allowed it to endure. But the wear is visible.
The extreme centralization of power, personalization around Khamenei, and the absence of transparent succession mechanisms cast uncertainties. What will happen after his death? Will the regime be able to reform from within or collapse under its contradictions?
Iran at a Crossroads
The Iranian regime faces unprecedented pressure. Internal factors – social anger, democratic aspirations, economic crisis – combine with geopolitical tensions – diplomatic isolation, regional rivalries, simmering conflict with Israel.
In response, several paths emerge: an authoritarian hardening, a facade reform, a gradual collapse, or a democratic transition. The figure of Reza Pahlavi, the action of Mohammadi, and the memory of Mahsa Amini embody the aspirations of a diverse people, in search of dignity.
In this shadow theater, the future of Iran remains open. But one thing is certain: the Iranian youth, connected, educated, determined, will not give up on their hope for a free country.