Alice Weidel at election night in Saxony, September 1, 2019. Credits: Sandro Halank / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Three days before the September 6 vote in Saxony-Anhalt, the latest polls give Alternative for Germany 40 to 42% of the vote, well ahead of the CDU. This surge of the far right in Germany guarantees neither a majority of seats nor the election of its candidate, Ulrich Siegmund. It does, however, put decisive regional levers within the party’s reach, from schools to public media.
From 40 to 42%, But No Majority Secured
The two most recent polls confirm the gap. Infratest dimap for ARD surveyed 1,511 people on August 24 and 25: AfD 42%, CDU 22%. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF polled 1,053 voters from August 25 to 27: AfD 40%, CDU 23%. In both cases, BSW and FDP remain below 5%. These figures are snapshots of public opinion, not forecasts.
The 5% threshold makes the arithmetic volatile: votes for parties that are eliminated mechanically increase the seat share of qualified parties. Yet no projection gives AfD an outright majority. Article 65 of the regional constitution first requires a majority of all members of parliament to elect the minister-president. After two failed attempts and a vote on early dissolution, another round can be held by a majority of votes cast. Abstentions could then matter, but that scenario remains hypothetical.
Schools As The First Laboratory
This election is not just about the national balance of power: schools and culture largely fall under the authority of the state. In its official platform, AfD promises to end inclusive schooling, ease compulsory attendance by allowing home-schooling, abolish the current regional center for civic education, and refocus history on the empire founded by Bismarck. Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, a coauthor of the platform, summed up this line in an interview with Deutschlandfunk: “More Bismarck, less Hitler.”
Some of these measures could be carried out through directives, appointments, or budgets. Deeper reforms would require a law; the announced end of inclusion would run up against the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities and the constitutional ban on discrimination. The disappearance of the civic education center would also weaken funding for school visits to memorial sites.
AfD also wants to reduce public broadcasting to a minimal service, “Grundfunk,” and denounce broadcasting treaties, through interregional procedures. In asylum and border policy, the state cannot act alone: most of the law falls under the federal level, the European Union, or international commitments.
Since November 7, 2023, the regional Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified Saxony-Anhalt’s AfD as a “confirmed far-right movement.” This designation does not predetermine the vote. It underscores the stakes: finishing first would open access to public levers; using them would still require clearing parliamentary and legal hurdles.