Madagascar in turmoil: parliament removes Rajoelina as army units move

Under the French flag, Andry Rajoelina leaves the Great Island to ensure his safety. Paris emphasizes the constitutional order and stability. In Antananarivo, the crowd swells, driven by the lack of water and power outages. The standoff is now between the dismissive Assembly, aligned barracks, and scrutinized jurisdictions.

Since the end of September, Madagascar has been teetering: massive processions, hesitant forces, capitals on alert. On October 14, 2025, the National Assembly votes a motion of impeachment against President Andry Rajoelina. In the wake of this, Colonel Mikaël Randrianirina, head of the CAPSAT, announces taking power. The removal is no longer a prospect: it structures the present. Story of a country demanding the State… and the light.

Exfiltration, video, removal: the highlights

In the night of Antananarivo, news falls abruptly: on October 12, 2025, Andry Rajoelina is exfiltrated by a French military plane, according to RFI. The head of state says he is leaving the Great Island to ensure his personal safety. He reappears on October 13 at 10:35 PM (UTC+3) in a video address from an undisclosed location. He refuses to resign, invokes the Constitution, and claims to have escaped an "assassination attempt".

On October 14, 2025, the crisis shifts: the National Assembly adopts a motion of impeachment and declares the head of state removed. As soon as the vote is announced, units, including elements of the CAPSAT, announce taking control to protect the Malagasy people. The dissolution of the Assembly announced by the president a few hours earlier is challenged by deputies who deem it illegal. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, through Volker Türk, warns of at least 22 deaths since the end of September. Paris maintains its dual stance: "stability" and "respect for constitutional order".

Antananarivo, square in apnea

At the end of the dry season, 13-May Square becomes the stage of Malagasy history again. On one side, the dense crowd, young faces, mothers in lamba, civil servants exhausted by power cuts. On the other, covered trucks, uniforms that hesitate then align. A CAPSAT soldier declares in a viral video: "We will not shoot." The whisper becomes a watchword. The civos — the Malagasy — raise their hands, red and green Malagasy flags flutter in the evening wind. Antananarivo speaks softly but thinks loudly: electricity goes out, water becomes scarce, and removal is voted.

From yesterday's fervor to today's distrust, the CAPSAT refuses to open fire and then announces the seizure of power. The processions persist, the toll rises, and the UN reports at least 22 deaths. The Assembly acknowledges the obstruction on October 14; the public demands a credible transition and accountability.
From yesterday’s fervor to today’s distrust, the CAPSAT refuses to open fire and then announces the seizure of power. The processions persist, the toll rises, and the UN reports at least 22 deaths. The Assembly acknowledges the obstruction on October 14; the public demands a credible transition and accountability.

The capital is no longer alone. Toamasina, Fianarantsoa, Mahajanga buzz with gatherings. The sloping streets carry as many rumors as taxis-be. They mention La Réunion, sometimes Dubai or Mauritius: nothing is confirmed. The only certainty lies in these suspended hours where one watches a phone screen as one used to listen to the radio.

A nocturnal video, between defiance and tipping point

The staging is sober, the lighting harsh. Andry Rajoelina reappears on October 13 at 10:35 PM. He speaks directly: "I have not resigned." He brandishes the Constitution, swears he left the country to avoid a bloodbath. Then comes the accusation: "assassination attempt". Nothing is detailed. On social networks, the opposition doubts, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko demands proofs and investigation. The next day, the Assembly decides by vote. The removal becomes a political fact.

In a nighttime video, the president claims he has not resigned and calls upon the Constitution. The next day, the Assembly votes for his removal. He mentions an assassination attempt and says he is avoiding a bloodbath. The legality of the actions, the timing of the decrees, and the interim become part of the debate.
In a nighttime video, the president claims he has not resigned and calls upon the Constitution. The next day, the Assembly votes for his removal. He mentions an assassination attempt and says he is avoiding a bloodbath. The legality of the actions, the timing of the decrees, and the interim become part of the debate.

In the corridors of power, decrees are still finding their way. Rajoelina bets on the text and time. The deputies oppose the vote. The address was the pause before the fall.

Politics in Madagascar: institutional showdown after removal

On October 14, 2025, the National Assembly challenges the dissolution announced by the president. Moreover, it votes a motion of impeachment. Thus, it enacts the removal. The statements collide: the presidential camp claims to have consulted the presidents of the Assembly and the Senate; the deputies invoke the Constitution to justify the deposition. The High Constitutional Court (HCC) becomes the most scrutinized institution. Indeed, its interpretation on the validity of the dissolution is crucial. Moreover, the scope of the impeachment and the expected interim will weigh on the hours to come.

In the cafes of Analakely, bets are placed: validation by the HCC or transition led by those who hold the force? If the dissolution is invalidated, the removal stands without remainder; if it is upheld, a legitimacy conflict opens between decrees and vote.

CAPSAT: from refusal to shoot to announcement of taking power

The turning point lies in a phrase: "We will not shoot." The men of the CAPSAT, with a known symbolic capital since 2009, rally to the crowd, then announce taking power under the authority of Colonel Mikaël Randrianirina. The declaration falls after the Assembly’s vote. A promise is made of a transition and security guarantees for the Malagasy people. The gendarmerie, the police, and some army units disalign.

Promises of reforms, then power cuts and social unrest: the crisis begins on September 25. What follows is repression, alliances, exfiltration, a speech, and, on October 14, obstruction. Paris insists on stability, Antananarivo adheres to the law. The country is searching for electricity... and an institutional compass.
Promises of reforms, then power cuts and social unrest: the crisis begins on September 25. What follows is repression, alliances, exfiltration, a speech, and, on October 14, obstruction. Paris insists on stability, Antananarivo adheres to the law. The country is searching for electricity… and an institutional compass.

Malagasy politics and the role of Paris

France ensures protecting lives and preserving constitutional order. The exfiltration by French military plane, revealed by RFI, adds a geopolitical layer. La Réunion emerges, a few hundred kilometers away, as a stopover track; the subsequent destination remains unconfirmed.

The Franco-Malagasy relations mix history, economic interests, and post-colonial sensitivities. The exact operational role of Paris in this sequence calls for explanations: what did it know? when? at whose request? Meanwhile, Élysée and Quai d’Orsay repeat: "respect for institutions", "Malagasy solutions", "dialogue".

A drained country: the economy, water, electricity

Originally, there is the daily life. Outages, scarce water, night imposed by power cuts. On September 25, 2025, meetings of residents, local elected officials, and outraged youth become demonstrations. Repression follows; the toll rises. At least 22 deaths, according to the UN. Each outage becomes a slogan, each queue an improvised meeting.

Madagascar lives on credit of hope. Prices rise, baskets lighten, salaries delay. The youth, called Gen Z, confounds with its codes but occupies the street. The crisis has no single center: an entanglement of grievances that converge under a single flag.

Runway scenes: La Réunion as a supposed stopover

On the runways of Roland-Garros in Saint-Denis de La Réunion, one imagines the boarding ramp under the headlights. Andry Rajoelina, hurried silhouette, escorted, in the measured step of protocol officers. This scene is not official. It belongs to the collective imagination when information eludes. Sources mention a route Madagascar → La Réunion, then unknown destination. Dubai comes up, Mauritius too. Nothing is verified. The conditional reigns.

Chain reactions

In Antananarivo, the opposition coalesces. Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko hails a "historic vote" and promises to take legal action to secure the procedure. NGOs document violence. Volker Türk expresses his "shock". In the region, there is fear of a domino effect. Embassies tighten their travel advisories. In Paris, Emmanuel Macron maintains the line: caution in public, discreet activism behind the scenes. Immediate question: who ensures the interim and on what basis?

Reported dialogues, strictly sourced

Yesterday, the diplomatic brilliance; today, the chiaroscuro: exfiltration, motion of impeachment, announcement of a takeover. Where is the president? Who decided what? Justice is under scrutiny; the HCC becomes a compass.
Yesterday, the diplomatic brilliance; today, the chiaroscuro: exfiltration, motion of impeachment, announcement of a takeover. Where is the president? Who decided what? Justice is under scrutiny; the HCC becomes a compass.

"We will not shoot," say CAPSAT soldiers in videos authenticated by international media. "I have not resigned," responds Andry Rajoelina, on October 13 at 10:35 PM, during his address. "The dissolution is not legal," insists Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, on October 14, in a press conference. "I am shocked by the violence," declares Volker Türk. Paris repeats "constitutional order" and "stability". The same day, the Assembly votes the impeachment; CAPSAT announces taking power.

The shadow areas at this stage

The location of the head of state remains undetermined: La Réunion is cited as a probable stopover; Dubai or Mauritius are mentioned without confirmation. The scope of the French involvement in the exfiltration — planning, decision chain, political validation — is not publicly established. The validity of the dissolution is contested by the Assembly’s vote and must be arbitrated by the HCC. Who exercises executive authority remains to be clarified between military announcements, presidential claim, and parliamentary prerogatives.

What this crisis says about Madagascar

Malagasy crises have a tempo: they arise from lacks, feed on anger, then become entrenched in procedures. This one differs by its acceleration: outages → youth → rallies → exfiltration → address → impeachment → military announcement. Andry Rajoelina, who came in 2009, returned through the polls in 2023, appears isolated: he does not give up, but moves away. France assumes sensitive decisions and shelters behind the Constitution of others. The Malagasy await the return of light… and for political life to be illuminated.

The conditions for a lasting crisis resolution

Clear actions will be needed: independent investigation into the violence, institutional path validated by the HCC, guarantees to the Malagasy. Social gestures will be needed — water, electricity, prices — without which no stability holds. Finally, a political word that mends will be needed. Madagascar is not a game board: it is an island-continent. The voted removal is not an end; it is the entry into a transition to be defined between street, barracks, and institutions.

This article was written by Christian Pierre.