Credits: Claudio Centonze / European Commission Audiovisual Service / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY 4.0.
Since late September, madagascar flag staggers: massive marches, hesitant security forces, capitals on alert. On October 14, 2025, the National Assembly votes a motion of removal against President Andry Rajoelina. Shortly after, Colonel Mikaël Randrianirina, head of the CAPSAT, announces seizing power. Removal is no longer a prospect: it shapes the present. Account of a country demanding the state… and the light.
Exfiltration, Video, Removal: Key Events
On the night in Antananarivo, news falls abruptly: on October 12, 2025, Andry Rajoelina is exfiltrated by a French military plane, according to RFI. The head of state says he left the Great Island to ensure his personal safety. He reappears on October 13 at 10:35 p.m. (UTC+3) in a video address from an undisclosed location. He refuses to resign, invokes the Constitution and claims to have escaped an “assassination attempt.”
On October 14, 2025, the crisis shifts: the National Assembly adopts a motion of removal and declares the head of state dismissed. Barely after the vote is announced, units, including elements of the CAPSAT, declare they will take control to protect the malagasy people. The dissolution of the Assembly announced by the president a few hours earlier is defied by deputies who deem it illegal. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, via Volker Türk, warns of at least 22 deaths since late September. Paris maintains a dual line: “stability” and “respect for the constitutional order.”
Antananarivo, The Square Holding Its Breath
At the end of the dry season, 13-May Square becomes again the stage of Malagasy history. On one side, a dense crowd, young faces, mothers in lamba, civil servants exhausted by power cuts. On the other, covered trucks, uniforms hesitating then aligning. A CAPSAT soldier says in a viral video: “We will not fire.” The whisper becomes a watchword. The civos — the malagasy people — raise their hands, red-and-green malagasy flag beat the evening wind. Antananarivo speaks softly but thinks big: electricity goes out, water becomes scarce, and removal is voted.
The capital is no longer alone. Toamasina, Fianarantsoa, Mahajanga buzz with gatherings. The hilly streets carry as many rumors as the share-taxis. People mention La Réunion, sometimes Dubai or Mauritius: nothing is confirmed. The only certainty is these suspended hours when one watches a phone screen like people used to listen to the radio.
A Night Video, Between Defiance and Tipping Point
The staging is spare, the lighting harsh. Andry Rajoelina reappears on October 13 at 10:35 p.m. He speaks straight: “I did not resign.” He brandishes the Constitution, swears he left the country to avoid a bloodbath. Then comes the accusation: “assassination attempt.” Nothing is detailed. Online, the opposition doubts, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko demands evidence and an investigation. The next day, the Assembly decides by vote. The removal becomes a political fact.
In the corridors of power, decrees are still finding their path. Rajoelina bets on text and time. Deputies oppose with the vote. The address will have been the pause before the fall.
Politics in Madagascar: Institutional Tug-of-War After Removal
On October 14, 2025, the National Assembly defies the dissolution announced by the president. It also votes a motion of removal. Thus, it records the dismissal. Statements collide: the presidential camp says it consulted the presidents of the Assembly and the Senate; the deputies invoke the Constitution to justify the deprivation. The High Constitutional Court (HCC) becomes the most scrutinized institution. Indeed, its reading on the validity of the dissolution is crucial. Moreover, the scope of the removal and the expected interim will weigh on the coming hours.
In the cafés of Analakely, bets are placed: validation by the HCC or a transition steered by those who hold the force? If the dissolution is invalidated, the removal stands entirely; if it is upheld, a legitimacy conflict opens between decrees and the vote.
CAPSAT: From Refusal to Fire to Announcement of Seizing Power
The turning point rests on one sentence: “We will not fire.” The men of the CAPSAT, with their symbolic capital known since 2009, join the crowd, then announce seizing power under the authority of Colonel Mikaël Randrianirina. The declaration comes after the Assembly’s vote. A transition and security guarantees for the malagasy people are promised. The gendarmerie, the police, and army units fall out of line.
Malagasy Politics and Paris’s Role
France says it is protecting lives and preserving the constitutional order. The exfiltration by a French military plane, revealed by RFI, adds a geopolitical layer. La Réunion appears, a few hundred kilometers away, as a probable stopover; the subsequent destination remains unconfirmed.
Franco-Malagasy relations mix history, economic interests, and post-colonial sensitivities. The exact operational role of Paris in this sequence calls for clarifications: what did it know? when? at whose request? Meanwhile, the Élysée and the Foreign Ministry repeat: “respect for institutions,” “Malagasy solutions,” “dialogue.”
A Bleeding Country: Economy, Water, Electricity
At root, there is the daily life. Outages, scarce water, nights imposed by load shedding. On September 25, 2025, residents’ meetings, local officials and outraged youth turn into demonstrations. Repression follows; the toll rises. At least 22 deaths, according to the UN. Every outage becomes a slogan, every queue an impromptu rally.
Madagascar lives on credit of hope. Prices rise, baskets lighten, wages lag. The youth, called Gen Z, surprise with their codes but occupy the street. The crisis has no single center: an entanglement of grievances converging under the same flag.
Runway Scenes: La Réunion as an Alleged Stopover
On the runways of Roland-Garros in Saint-Denis, La Réunion, one imagines the embarkation ramp under the lights. Andry Rajoelina, rushed silhouette, escorted, to the cadenced step of protocol officers. This scene is not official. It belongs to the collective imagination when information is lacking. Sources mention a route Madagascar → La Réunion, then unknown destination. Dubai is mentioned again, Mauritius too. Nothing is verified. The conditional rules.
Chain Reactions
In Antananarivo, the opposition coalitions. Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko hails a “historic vote” and promises to take legal action to secure the procedure. NGOs document violence. Volker Türk says he is “shocked by the violence.” In the region, there are fears of a domino effect. Embassies harden their travel advice. In Paris, Emmanuel Macron holds the line: caution in public, discreet activism behind the scenes. Immediate question: who is acting as interim and on what basis?
Reported Dialogues, Strictly Sourced
“We will not fire,” say CAPSAT soldiers in videos authenticated by international media. “I did not resign,” replies Andry Rajoelina, on October 13 at 10:35 p.m., during his address. “The dissolution is not legal,” insists Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, on October 14, at a press conference. “I am shocked by the violence,” declares Volker Türk. Paris reiterates “the constitutional order” and “stability.” The same day, the Assembly votes the removal; the CAPSAT announces seizing power.
Areas of Uncertainty at This Stage
The location of the head of state remains undetermined: La Réunion is cited as a likely stopover; Dubai or Mauritius are mentioned without confirmation. The extent of French involvement in the exfiltration — planning, decision chain, political approval — is not publicly established. The validity of the dissolution is contested by the Assembly vote and must be arbitrated by the HCC. Who exercises executive authority remains to be clarified among military announcements, presidential claims, and parliamentary prerogatives.
What This Crisis Says About Madagascar
Malagasy crises have a tempo: they arise from shortfalls, feed on anger, then calcify into procedures. This one differs by its acceleration: outages → youth → rallies → exfiltration → address → removal → military announcement. Andry Rajoelina, who arrived in 2009 and returned by the ballot box in 2023, appears isolated: he does not give up, but withdraws. France makes sensitive decisions and hides behind another’s Constitution. The malagasy people wait for the light to return… and for political life to become clear.
Conditions For A Durable Exit From The Crisis
There will need to be clear actions: an independent investigation into the violence, an institutional path validated by the HCC, guarantees to the malagasy people. There will need to be social measures — water, electricity, prices — without which no stability holds. Finally, a political voice that stitches back together. Madagascar is not a playground: it is an island-continent. The voted removal is not an end; it is the entry into a transition to be defined between the street, the barracks, and institutions.