On October 6, 2025, Sébastien Lecornu, resigning prime minister, received 48 hours from the Élysée to conduct bilateral consultations (PS, Ecologists, PCF, then parliamentary groups) and report back to the president before a public address. He is invited to the "8 PM" news on France 2 this Wednesday, October 8. In the meantime, the allowances of ministers who stayed "a few hours" have been frozen (announcement made on October 7 and then specified). Emmanuel Macron remains the arbiter of options (budget, appointments, dissolution), with no speech indicated tonight.
Markets, debt, and ECB: diffuse pressure, no ultimatum
The European Central Bank does not impose a deadline on France. However, it expresses its hope for a budget submitted and voted on time. Additionally, it observes French developments according to European rules. On the markets, rumors about the dissolution or repeal of the pension reform are circulating. Thus, they are already causing price fluctuations. This situation is due to political uncertainty influencing investors and financial decisions. Indeed, this occurs in a context of high debt (government bonds, stocks), sensitive to political signals. The executive’s message seeks to reduce uncertainty to limit volatility.
2026 Deficit: a target under discussion, not a commitment
The target advanced by Matignon for 2026 is a public deficit in 2026 between 4.7% and 5.0% of GDP. However, this target must be explicitly presented as a governmental target under negotiation, not an official commitment. It conditions the search for a budgetary platform likely to gather a majority of circumstance in the Assembly. Economic services have been tasked with clarifying revenue and savings options compatible with this range.
PLF 2026: timeline and safeguards
By principle, the finance bill (PLF) must be submitted to the National Assembly at the latest. Indeed, this deadline is set for the first Tuesday of October, which is October 7, 2025. In practice, the starting point of the constitutional 70-day period can be set by mutual agreement. This is done with the Assembly based on the documents transmitted, making a delayed submission compatible. For example, until October 13, this remains in line with respecting the review period. The goal remains an adoption before December 31.
In case of prolonged blockage, two mechanisms exist: the application of Article 47 of the Constitution is possible. This allows implementation by ordinance if Parliament has not decided within the 70 days. And, as a last political resort, "provisional twelfths" can be voted by Parliament. This authorizes month by month the renewal of a twelfth of the previous year’s credits.
Pensions: red lines and figures to handle with caution
The pensions issue structures the negotiations. Élisabeth Borne publicly mentions a "suspension" of the 2023 reform to unlock a compromise.
The PS claims to have no assurance regarding such a suspension. Meanwhile, the Ecologists insist on purchasing power and hardship. Additionally, the PCF demands a repeal that would be submitted to parliamentary vote. LFI demands repeal and denounces a "rescue" of Macronism, while hinting that it would not exclude a priori not censoring a PS-EELV-PCF government alone. LR and Horizons set a red line against any suspension. The RN announces: "I censor everything".
Regarding the figures, Bercy provides an order of magnitude for a suspension/modification. Thus, it would represent ≈ 0.5 billion euros in 2026 and ≈ 3 billion in 2027.
These are approximate estimates from governmental and union sources (the latter defending alternative trajectories). These figures depend heavily on the scope (legal age, long careers, acceleration of contribution duration) and any compensation measures.
To remember: any evolution of pensions carries non-linear budgetary consequences (revenues, expenses, senior employment). The political decision must be based on a quantified and fundable scenario.
Actors and positions: who demands what?
- Sébastien Lecornu: coordinates the consultations, seeks a "convergence" and promises a report to the Élysée before his televised statement.
- Emmanuel Macron: guardian of arbitrations (budget, appointments, dissolution).
- Olivier Faure (PS) demands a left-wing prime minister. He refuses a "joint government" with the current majority. Moreover, he says he has "no assurance" on the suspension of pensions.
- Marine Tondelier (Ecologists): wants social and climate guarantees, refuses a "totem" pensions.
- Fabien Roussel (PCF): wants to repeal the reform by a vote, and align a budget before the end of 2025.
- LFI (Mathilde Panot / Jean-Luc Mélenchon): repeal demanded, no "rescue" of Macronism, conditional openness to not censor a PS-EELV-PCF coalition without Macronism.
- LR (Bruno Retailleau): "red line" on suspension, though internal voices contest the method.
- Horizons (Édouard Philippe): wants an early presidential election after the budget vote.
- Yaël Braun-Pivet (National Assembly): warns of "very heavy consequences" in the absence of a budget; the Bureau deemed inadmissible the motion to dismiss the president.
Analysis: where is the budget agreement being played out?
Three knots overlap:
- Pensions: should they be suspended (temporarily), adjusted (long careers, hardship, women) or repealed? Each option has a cost (or a deferred saving) and a signal to the markets.
- Revenues: a mix is on the table including niches, exceptional contributions and fight against fraud. Additionally, potential targeted tax adjustments are considered to maintain the trajectory without breaking activity.
- Deficit: retain the 4.7–5.0% range as a cap, but assume it is not a legal commitment. However, consider this range as a target to land in the finance bill.
Keystone of Budget 2026: the method.
The executive prefers "project majorities" instead of a generalized 49.3 on the PLF 2026. Thus, it compartmentalizes votes to avoid motions.
Scenarios by Christmas: hypotheses and risks (not facts)
The following are political hypotheses and journalistic analysis, not established events.
- Minimal budget agreement: vote of a refocused PLF (deficit < 5%), targeted concessions (hardship, low wages), without substantial pension reform. Risk: unstable coalition, backlash during execution texts.
- Reshuffle with a left-wing prime minister: PS-EÉLV-PCF agree to let the budget pass in exchange for gestures on pensions and purchasing power. Risk: cross-censorship LR/RN/LFI.
- "Limited" 49.3 (if legally/politically feasible) on a few key articles. Risk: increased contestation, but time gained.
- Dissolution: return to the polls before budget adoption, high volatility on markets, need for a transitional mechanism (provisional twelfths).
- Early presidential election: hypothesis desired by part of the center-right, politically heavy, legally sensitive and conditioned to the budget calendar.
Budget 2026: an equation with three unknowns
To avoid the double penalty (political instability and debt-related mistrust), the executive must secure a framework: deficit 4.7–5.0% target clearly announced as a goal, procedure respected (submission no later than early/mid-October, 70 days of review), and clear signal on pensions (choice + funding). The markets will react as much to the method as to the figure. Tonight, at 8 PM, Sébastien Lecornu will have to arbitrate between politics and budget arithmetic: say what is negotiable and what is not. This is where the credibility of Budget 2026 is at stake.
At Matignon, Sébastien Lecornu, resigning prime minister, completes in 48 hours consultations with PS, Ecologists, and PCF before reporting to the Élysée, this Wednesday, October 8, then at the 8 PM news on France 2. The goal is to create a framework for Budget 2026 with a targeted deficit between 4.7 and 5% of GDP. Additionally, a solution on pensions is sought to avoid a parliamentary deadlock. This would also prevent market volatility and a dissolution scenario.
