Credits: Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY 4.0.
Convicted on September 11, 2025, by the First Panel of the STF to 27 years and 3 months, Jair Bolsonaro is charged with attempted coup and belonging to a criminal organization, a verdict reached by 4 votes to 1 in Brasília. Sentences are not immediately enforceable; appeals announced. Between demonstrations and tensions with Washington, such as visas, sanctions, and surtaxes, Brazil is questioning the political and democratic implications of this decision.
The Facts: A Historic STF Verdict
The former president Jair Bolsonaro was convicted on September 11, 2025 by the First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempted coup and participation in a criminal organization. The verdict was reached 4 votes to 1, with Judge Luiz Fux voting to acquit, while Alexandre de Moraes was the reporting judge. Seven co-defendants also received sentences ranging from 2 to 26 years. The ruling relates to Bolsonaro’s role in the conspiracy following his 2022 defeat and the violence of January 8, 2023.
Bolsonaro, placed under house arrest in early August by STF decision, remains ineligible until 2030 under a prior ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The defense denounces the sentences as “disproportionate” and has announced appeals, including at the international level.
Legal reference points: the First Panel of the STF comprises five justices (currently Cristiano Zanin, Cármen Lúcia, Flávio Dino, Luiz Fux, and Alexandre de Moraes). The decision may be subject to internal appeals, within the framework set by Brazilian criminal procedure.
What the Judgment Says
The judges upheld a series of five offenses. These include the attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law. They also identified organizing a coup and participation in an armed criminal organization. Finally, damage to protected public and cultural property is also included. The magistrates emphasize the gravity of a plan aimed at preventing alternation after the 2022 defeat, with actions culminating in the sacking of the Three Powers Plaza on January 8, 2023 (Congress, Supreme Court, and Planalto Palace).
The dissenting vote of Luiz Fux contests the panel’s jurisdiction and the characterization of the facts. It could feed new grounds for appeal.
The Co-Defendants and the Mechanics of the Conspiracy
Among the seven close associates convicted are former officers and collaborators. They are accused of having coordinated preparatory acts. In addition, they facilitated the mobilization of radical groups. Differentiated sentences were imposed according to the degrees of participation and cooperation with the investigation (rewarded plea bargains). This military dimension marks a turning point. Indeed, it is one of the rare times since the end of the dictatorship that military personnel are convicted for offenses against the democratic order.
Reactions in Brazil: The Street and Institutions Under Strain
Following the verdict, demonstrations by supporters and opponents took place in several major cities. Bolsonaro’s allies have mentioned a possible parliamentary amnesty. Several magistrates and constitutionalists consider this hypothesis unconstitutional. They recall that amnesty cannot cover crimes directed against the democratic order.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defended the separation of powers. He also asserted that Brazilian democracy would not yield to political pressures or foreign pressures. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced the “threats” coming from abroad against sovereign judicial decisions.
Washington and Donald Trump Get Involved: Visas, Sanctions, and Tariffs
The conviction comes after months of escalation with Washington. In July 2025, the U.S. administration led by Donald Trump and its Secretary of State Marco Rubio revoked visas and sanctioned Judge Alexandre de Moraes. The White House also imposed a 40% surtax effective August 6, 2025. This surtax adds to existing duties, bringing tariffs on most Brazilian imports to 50%. However, there are several sectoral exemptions.
These measures have strained the bilateral relationship and provoked diplomatic countermeasures from Brasília. After the verdict, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio called the trial a “witch hunt” and promised an American response, without details. The Brazilian government denounced interference and rejected any commercial blackmail related to an internal judicial process.
For further reading: TSE decision rendering Bolsonaro ineligible until 2030, Announcement of visa restrictions (State Department), OFAC sanctions against Alexandre de Moraes, Additional tariffs imposed on Brazilian imports.
Beyond the Bolsonaro Case: Populisms Facing the Judge
The STF decision comes in an international context where several populist leaders are being held to account: in the United States, Donald Trump was found guilty in 2024 in the so-called ‘hush money’ case; in France, Marine Le Pen was convicted in spring 2025 for misappropriation of European funds; in the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte is detained and subject to proceedings before the International Criminal Court. Parallels have their limits, but the aggregation of these cases suggests a turning point: the judicialization of abuses of power is advancing with institutions (national or international) more willing to sanction.
These cases, however, revive debates everywhere about the politicization of justice. They also raise questions about the criminalization of political struggle. Finally, there is a risk of increased polarization. The STF justified its severity by invoking the protection of institutions and the prevention of episodes similar to January 8, 2023. Critics denounce an excess of judicial power.
Bolsonaro’s Political Calculation: A Losing Bet
Throughout the trial, a portrait emerged of a leader convinced he alone embodied the popular will. This personalization of power led him to minimize the institutional and human costs of putting democratic rules to the test. This bet proves losing because the criminal conviction and extended ineligibility pose problems. Moreover, the house arrest and the weakening of his inner circle complicate any short-term comeback.
One card remains: Bolsonaro’s influence over a diverse conservative bloc, where possible successors such as his sons Eduardo, Carlos, and Jair Renan Bolsonaro emerge alongside ambitious governors, legislators, and evangelical figures including Michelle Bolsonaro. The amnesty demand pushed by some elected officials could become a test of cohesion for this movement.
What Consequences for Brazil?
In the short term, the country must manage a tense social climate and security around institutions. The economic environment is shaken by the U.S. tariffs, with possible impacts on agri-food and industrial supply chains. In the medium term, the question is democratic resilience: will penal deterrence be enough to defuse insurrectionary temptations? Can the institutional right offer a credible alternative without relying on a convicted leader?
On the international front, the case becomes a test for Brasília’s strategic autonomy. Brazil will seek to diversify its markets and multilateralize commercial dialogue to contain the elasticity of U.S. tariffs.
- July 18, 2022: meeting with ambassadors at the Palácio da Alvorada, which fed the ineligibility proceedings.
- June 30, 2023: the TSE declares Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years (until 2030).
- January 8, 2023: sacking in Brasília of the seats of the three powers.
- July 30, 2025: U.S. presidential decree announcing a 40% surtax (total tariff 50%), with exemptions.
- August 4, 2025: house arrest of Bolsonaro decided by the STF.
- September 11, 2025: conviction of Bolsonaro to 27 years and 3 months.
What Could Still Change
- Appeals: the defense can pursue several avenues, including petitions to international bodies. However, these do not automatically suspend enforcement.
- Amnesty: politically explosive, legally fragile.
- Diplomacy: the threat of further U.S. measures hangs over trade and bilateral cooperation.
