Condemned on September 11, 2025, by the First Chamber of the STF to 27 years and 3 months, Jair Bolsonaro is held accountable for the attempted coup d’état and a criminal organization, with a verdict reached by 4 votes to 1 in Brasília. Non-executable sentences, appeals announced. Amid protests and tensions with Washington, such as visas, sanctions, and surcharges, Brazil questions itself. Indeed, it questions the political and democratic scope of this decision.
The facts: a historic verdict from the STF
The former president Jair Bolsonaro was condemned on September 11, 2025 by the First Chamber of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempted coup d’état and participation in a criminal organization. The verdict was reached by 4 votes to 1, with Judge Luiz Fux voting for acquittal, while Alexandre de Moraes was the reporting judge. Seven co-defendants also received sentences ranging from 2 to 26 years. The judgment is linked to Bolsonaro’s attributed role in the conspiracy following his 2022 defeat and the violence of January 8, 2023.
Bolsonaro, placed under house arrest in early August by STF decision, remains ineligible until 2030 under a previous decision by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The defense denounces "disproportionate" sentences and has announced appeals, including on the international level.
Legal references: the First Chamber of the STF consists of five magistrates (currently Cristiano Zanin, Cármen Lúcia, Flávio Dino, Luiz Fux, and Alexandre de Moraes). The decision can be subject to internal appeals, under conditions governed by Brazilian criminal procedure.
What the judgment says
The judges identified a series of five offenses. Among them are the attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law. Additionally, they identified the organization of a coup d’état and participation in an armed criminal organization. Finally, the degradation of protected public and cultural properties is also included. The magistrates emphasize the seriousness of a plan aimed at preventing alternation after the 2022 defeat, with actions culminating in the sacking of the Three Powers Plaza on January 8, 2023 (Congress, Supreme Court, and Planalto Palace).
The dissenting vote of Luiz Fux challenges the chamber’s jurisdiction and the qualification of the facts. It could provide new grounds for appeal.
The co-defendants and the mechanics of the conspiracy
Among the seven close associates convicted, there are former officers and collaborators. They are accused of having coordinated preparatory acts. Moreover, they facilitated the mobilization of radical groups. Differentiated sentences were pronounced based on the degrees of participation and cooperation with the investigation (rewarded delations). This military dimension marks a turning point. Indeed, it is one of the rare times since the end of the dictatorship. Consequently, military personnel are convicted for attacks on the democratic order.
Reactions in Brazil: the street and institutions under tension
Upon the announcement of the verdict, protests by supporters and opponents took place in several major cities. Bolsonaro’s close associates mention a parliamentary amnesty. However, several magistrates and constitutionalists consider this hypothesis unconstitutional. Indeed, they recall that amnesty cannot cover crimes directed against the democratic order.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defended the separation of powers. Moreover, he asserts that Brazilian democracy would not yield to political pressures or foreign pressures. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced the "threats" made from outside against sovereign judicial decisions.
Washington and Donald Trump get involved: visas, sanctions, and tariffs
The conviction comes after months of escalation with Washington. In July 2025, the American administration led by Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio revoked visas and sanctioned Judge Alexandre de Moraes. The White House also imposed a 40% surcharge starting August 6, 2025. This surcharge adds to existing duties, bringing the tariffs on the majority of Brazilian imports to 50%. However, there are several sectoral exemptions.
These measures have strained the bilateral relationship and provoked diplomatic countermeasures from Brasília. Following the verdict, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio called the trial a "witch hunt" and promised an American response, without details. The Brazilian government denounced an interference and rejected any commercial blackmail linked to an internal judicial procedure.
To learn more: TSE decision making Bolsonaro ineligible until 2030, Announcement of visa restrictions (State Department), OFAC sanctions against Alexandre de Moraes, Additional tariffs imposed on Brazilian imports.
Beyond the Bolsonaro case: populisms facing the judge
The STF’s decision comes in an international context where several populist leaders must be held accountable: in the United States, Donald Trump was found guilty in 2024 in the so-called ‘hush money’ case; in France, Marine Le Pen was convicted in spring 2025 for misappropriation of European funds, in the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte is detained and is the subject of a procedure before the International Criminal Court. The parallels have their limits, but the aggregation of these cases suggests a turning point: the judicialization of abuses of power is progressing with institutions (national or international) more prompt to sanction.
However, these cases everywhere reignite debates on the politicization of justice. Moreover, they raise questions about the criminalization of political struggle. Finally, there is a risk of increased polarization. The STF justified its severity by the protection of institutions and the prevention of episodes similar to January 8, 2023. Critics denounce an excess of judicial power.
Bolsonaro’s political calculation: a losing bet
Throughout the trial, a portrait emerged of a leader convinced of embodying alone the popular will. This personalization of power led to minimizing the institutional and human costs of a test of democratic rules. This bet proves losing as the criminal conviction and prolonged ineligibility pose a problem. Moreover, the house arrest and the weakening of his entourage complicate the idea of a return in the short term.
One card remains: Bolsonaro’s influence capacity on a diversified conservative bloc, where possible heirs including his sons Eduardo, Carlos, and Jair Renan Bolsonaro emerge alongside ambitious governors, parliamentarians, and evangelical figures including Michelle Bolsonaro. The amnesty request carried by some elected officials could become a test of cohesion for this movement.
What are the consequences for Brazil?
In the short term, the country must manage a tense social climate and security around institutions. Furthermore, the economic environment is shaken by the American tariffs, with possible repercussions on agri-food and industrial chains. In the medium term, the question is that of democratic resilience: will penal deterrence be enough to defuse insurrectional temptations? Can the institutional right offer a credible alternative, without relying on a condemned leader?
On the international level, the case becomes a test for Brasília’s strategic autonomy. Brazil will seek to diversify its outlets and multilateralize commercial dialogue to contain the elasticity of American tariffs.
- July 18, 2022: meeting with ambassadors at the Palácio da Alvorada, which will fuel the ineligibility procedure.
- June 30, 2023: the TSE declares Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years (until 2030).
- January 8, 2023: sacking in Brasília of the seats of the three powers.
- July 30, 2025: American presidential decree announcing a 40% surcharge (total tariff 50%), with exemptions.
- August 4, 2025: house arrest of Bolsonaro decided by the STF.
- September 11, 2025: conviction of Bolsonaro to 27 years and 3 months.
What can still change
- Appeals: the defense can explore several avenues, including requests before international bodies. However, these do not automatically suspend execution.
- Amnesty: politically explosive, legally fragile.
- Diplomacy: the threat of additional American measures weighs on trade and bilateral cooperation.
