Published on November 1, 2025, an Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche places Jordan Bardella at the forefront of the 2027 presidential race (35–37.5%), ahead of Édouard Philippe (15.5%) and a left around 12–13%. Conducted in metropolitan France on October 30-31, the survey describes a Rassemblement National (RN) dynamic while Marine Le Pen’s appeal, scheduled for January-February 2026 in Paris, already clouds the horizon.
The numbers, without frills but with precision
In the snapshot provided by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, published on 11/01/2025, the message is clear. Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, is establishing himself at the top of voting intentions for the first round of 2027. In the main scenario, he reaches 35% and up to 37.5% depending on the scenarios. In a comparable configuration, Marine Le Pen, president of the RN group in the Assembly, stands at 34%. This proves that within the same camp, the dynamic remains strong. The Macronist center is seeking its balance point. Édouard Philippe, mayor of Le Havre and head of Horizons, is measured at 15.5% in the reference scenario, down 5 points compared to April. Gabriel Attal peaks at 12.5%. Gérald Darmanin drops to 7%. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon ranges between 11.5% and 13%. Raphaël Glucksmann oscillates from 11% to 13%. Les Républicains maintain a modest profile with Bruno Retailleau between 8% and 8.5%, ahead of Xavier Bertrand at 5.5% and Laurent Wauquiez at 3%. In the Reconquête camp, Sarah Knafo approaches 6.5%, ahead of Éric Zemmour around 4.5%.
The internal mechanics of the RN score become clear in light of the flows. Elabe measures a high electoral loyalty, between 77% and 82%, a contribution from the LR and various right-wing electorate close to 26%, and progress among retirees who account for about one-third of the intentions in favor of the RN. This base, combined with more stable mobilization than its competitors, is enough to widen the gap in the first round.
A country caught between impatience and weariness
The photograph does not tell everything; it provides the texture of a political moment. For a year, public life has been tense. The presidential majority strives to maintain the thread of reforms. Meanwhile, the opposition, from the left to the RN, captures diffuse anger. In this context, Jordan Bardella emerges as the most readable face for voters seeking clarity. His advantage is not only arithmetic. It lies in the simplicity of the offer he embodies. Moreover, he relies on the consistency of a repeated discourse without frills. Finally, he bets on a calibrated media presence. The attritions observed with Édouard Philippe indicate the exhaustion of a center.
Indeed, he struggles to mobilize beyond his core base. This is particularly true among executives, retirees, and in Île-de-France. There, the former Prime Minister is retreating according to the study. On the left, the recomposition remains unfinished. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is regaining ground. Raphaël Glucksmann stabilizes a European reformist niche. The ecologists and communists, however, struggle to make an audible breakthrough.
The impression of a country in waiting permeates these results. The RN benefits from this waiting because it organizes it around a narrative of protection. The center hopes for a restart with a candidate who would gather the Ensemble electorate and capture part of LR. The left seeks the point of agreement between the cultures of the social movement and social democracy. Nothing is sealed; everything is laid out on the table for the coming months.
Marine Le Pen, the judicial battle in the background
The polling wave unfolds alongside a unique judicial calendar. Marine Le Pen has been sentenced in the first instance to five years of ineligibility with provisional execution. The appeal is set at the Paris Court of Appeal from 01/13/2026 to 02/12/2026. The main party contests the sanction. Consequently, she seeks to obtain the annulment or adjustment of the sentence. This penalty would strike her immediately. Nothing today indicates whether the decision expected in the summer of 2026 will confirm or overturn the ineligibility. The case already weighs on the drama of 2027. However, Elabe’s figures show that even without her, the RN has a replacement candidate ready for the challenge.
This simultaneity forces other forces to play on two registers. On one side, politics as usual, with its ideological confrontations and alliance calculations. On the other, law and the timing of jurisdictions, which impose their delays and prudence. It is important to remember that an opinion poll is neither a prophecy nor a verdict. Indeed, it is a thermometer whose reading requires composure.
The center in search of a second wind
The decline of Édouard Philippe is read in light of a stubborn fact. The former head of government aggregates less well than in the spring the voters of the majority. Moreover, he also gathers less those from traditional right. Among the former, the loss reaches eight points. Among the latter, the loss climbs to sixteen points. The –5 recorded in six months signals a problem of political offer. The sober and municipal style favored by the mayor of Le Havre reassures but does not galvanize. Gabriel Attal, although more visible, converts little in the right-wing electorate. Gérald Darmanin erodes among his own. Everything contributes to making the second place more uncertain than the first.
Within the center itself, a tension simmers between the aspiration for a dissidence capable of imprinting a narrative. Furthermore, there is the will for continuity that assumes the five-year legacy. The future contender will have to resolve this debate and gather territorial support. Then, he will have to clarify priorities. Above all, he will have to reconstitute a block of retirees who, for now, are leaning towards the RN.
The left between two loyalties
The left is still chasing two hares. The first, that of an electoral union. The second, that of an identity. Jean-Luc Mélenchon gains points within the NFP electorate and reactivates part of his base. Raphaël Glucksmann consolidates a European social-democratic space that attracts a fraction of Ensemble voters. But both are burdened by a chronic difficulty. The first place seems out of reach in the short term. Qualification for the second round will require an alchemy between mobilizing the militant core. Additionally, there will be a need for the ability to speak beyond partisan boundaries. Moreover, the distribution of votes among socialists, insoumis, ecologists, and communists can be a breath of fresh air. However, it could also be a hindrance in this context. Everything will hinge on the coherence of the narrative, budgetary credibility, Europe, concrete ecology, and daily security.
Beyond the scores, the making of intentions
A poll is not a ballot box. Elabe reminds us that the results are calculated on registered voters declaring their intention to vote. The sample includes 1,501 people, of which 1,396 are registered, surveyed online on October 30 and 31, 2025. The maximum margin of error reaches about 3.1 points. Five hypotheses were tested, crossing candidates from the PS/Place publique, the presidential camp, LR, RN, and Reconquête; these combinations explain the ranges observed. This statistical envelope requires modesty. A score measured at 35% can range between 32% and 38%. The monthly variation depends on the offer and the context in which the question is posed. Moreover, the formulation of the hypotheses, as well as the presence or absence of certain names, influence this phenomenon. Furthermore, the media saturation at a given moment plays an important role. The bandwagon effect for the favorite and the catch-up effect for the underdog also silently influence.
One must also consider the shadow of non-response, which is never neutral. The most confident voters readily respond. Others remain silent or hesitate. Pollsters correct, adjust, weigh, but uncertainty remains. The figure is not a rock; it is a beach where the tide of events leaves ripples. The election itself is still distant. By 2027, individual trajectories, unforeseen crises, alliances alternately formed and broken, will prove more than one projection wrong.
Bardella, portrait of the leading climber
The rise of Jordan Bardella is explained by an alchemy that the RN has cultivated for years. It combines the progressive normalization of a discourse that has become familiar and party discipline. It also integrates a communication centered on a young man, familiar with the codes of platforms and news channels. This narrative thread, painted since the European elections of 2019, has met the fatigue of a country exposed to successive shocks. Bardella does not promise intoxication; he promises order, firmness, protection. In contrast, his adversaries are still searching for the music that would resonate with more than an already convinced electorate. When the battle focuses on the clarity of the offer, the advantage goes to the simplest. Indeed, this occurs in the face of an offer still undecided.
The paradox is there. The more Marine Le Pen is entangled in the appeal procedure, the more Bardella stands as a plausible and autonomous recourse. The Elabe study indicates that, with constant variables, the gap between them remains narrow. This means that the RN vote has become transferable from one figure to another. $1
Caption. On news platforms, his interventions are brief and repeated. Indeed, they align with television formats favoring simple messages. On social networks, crafted excerpts extend this visibility and stabilize a core of support. This media mechanism does not dictate the vote, but it guides attention and, often, the willingness to intend.
What these numbers do not say, but suggest
The hypothesis of a second round opposes imaginaries rather than names. An RN bloc, strong with a mobilized core, would almost mechanically come out on top. The coalition on the other side remains. It could emerge from a revitalized center and a left aware of the arithmetic. Or it could shatter into canceling rivalries. The coming months will reveal if Édouard Philippe regains support among Ensemble voters and moderate LR. Additionally, we will see if he manages to reposition himself among executives and retirees, two crucial groups. They will also indicate if Mélenchon and Glucksmann stop neutralizing each other.
In this landscape, vigilance is required on one point. When the candidate is in the lead, he captures more attention. Consequently, he undergoes the "favorite’s spiral". This consists of surveys, critical angles, and counter-offensives. Nothing undermines a dynamic more than the feeling of inevitability. Conversely, nothing awakens an opposition better than the prospect of an announced duel. The country is not there yet. It listens, gauges, tests. Polls do not decide; they illuminate.
Political snapshot, caution required
A poll is never more than a snapshot. This one tells of a fractured France, tired of explanations without outcome, ready to entrust the first step to Jordan Bardella. The presidential camp is searching for its voice. The left hesitates between two narratives. Marine Le Pen awaits her call. Democracy, for its part, demands that we keep the measure of the numbers and the caution of the words. The rest will belong to the tumult of the months, to the campaigns that surprise, to the citizens who decide. And to that element of the unexpected without which an election would be just an addition.