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Published on November 1, 2025, an Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche puts Jordan Bardella in the lead in the 2027 presidential race (35–37.5%), ahead of Édouard Philippe (15.5%) and the left around 12–13%. Conducted in mainland France on October 30–31, the survey describes Rally National (RN) momentum while Marine Le Pen’s appeal, scheduled for January–February 2026 in Paris, is already clouding the outlook.
The Figures, Plain but Precise
In the snapshot provided by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, published on 11/01/2025, the message is clear. Jordan Bardella, RN president, is settling at the top of first-round voting intentions for 2027. In the main scenario, he reaches 35% and up to 37.5% depending on the scenario. In a comparable configuration, Marine Le Pen, RN group leader in the National Assembly, stands at 34%. This shows that within the same camp, the momentum remains strong. The Macronist center, meanwhile, is still looking for its balance point. Édouard Philippe, mayor of Le Havre and leader of Horizons, is measured at 15.5% in the reference scenario, down 5 points from April. Gabriel Attal tops out at 12.5%. Gérald Darmanin falls to 7%. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon ranges between 11.5% and 13%. Raphaël Glucksmann fluctuates from 11% to 13%. The Republicans remain modest, with Bruno Retailleau between 8% and 8.5%, ahead of Xavier Bertrand at 5.5% and Laurent Wauquiez at 3%. In the Reconquête camp, Sarah Knafo approaches 6.5%, ahead of Éric Zemmour around 4.5%.
The internal mechanics of the RN score become clearer when looking at voter flows. Elabe measures high loyalty, between 77% and 82%, a boost from LR and other right-wing voters close to 26%, and growth among retirees, who account for about one-third of support for the RN. This base, combined with more stable mobilization than among its rivals, is enough to widen the gap in the first round.
A Country Caught Between Restlessness And Fatigue
The picture does not say everything; it gives the texture of a political moment. Over the past year, public life has grown tense. The presidential majority is trying to keep its reform agenda on track. Meanwhile, the opposition, from the left to the RN, is capturing diffuse anger. In this context, Jordan Bardella stands out as the most legible face for voters seeking clarity. His edge is not just arithmetic. It comes from the simplicity of the offer he embodies. He also relies on the consistency of a message repeated without rough edges. Finally, he is betting on a carefully calibrated media presence. The losses seen for Édouard Philippe point to a centrist camp running out of steam.
Indeed, he is struggling to mobilize beyond his core base. This is especially true among executives, retirees, and in Île-de-France. There, the former prime minister is slipping in the survey. On the left, the reshuffling remains unfinished. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is gaining ground again. Raphaël Glucksmann is cementing a European social-democratic niche. The Greens and the Communists, meanwhile, are struggling to make themselves heard.
The sense of a country on hold runs through these results. The RN benefits from that wait because it frames it around a protection narrative. The center hopes for a restart with a candidate who could unite the Ensemble electorate and win over part of LR. The left is looking for common ground between the cultures of the social movement and social democracy. Nothing is settled; everything is on the table for the months ahead.
Marine Le Pen, The Legal Battle In The Background
The polling wave is unfolding alongside a singular legal timetable. Marine Le Pen was convicted at first instance to five years of ineligibility with immediate enforcement. The appeal is set before the Paris Court of Appeal from 01/13/2026 to 02/12/2026. The person concerned is challenging the penalty. As a result, she is seeking to have the sentence overturned or modified. That sentence would apply to her immediately. Today, nothing says whether the ruling expected in the summer of 2026 will uphold or strike down the ineligibility. The case is already weighing on the drama of 2027. Elabe’s numbers nevertheless show that, even without her, the RN has a backup candidate ready for the test.
This coincidence forces the other forces to play on two registers. On one side, politics itself, with its ideological clashes and coalition math. On the other, law and the timing of the courts, which impose their own deadlines and caution. It is important to remember that an opinion poll is neither a prophecy nor a verdict. Indeed, it is a thermometer whose reading requires cool heads.
The Center In Search Of A Second Wind
The drop in Édouard Philippe must be read in light of a stubborn fact. The former head of government is pulling in fewer voters from the majority than he did in the spring. He is also drawing fewer from traditional right-wing voters. Among the first group, the loss reaches eight points. Among the second, the loss rises to sixteen points. The –5 recorded over six months signals a problem with the political offer. The understated, city-hall style favored by the mayor of Le Havre reassures, but it does not electrify. Gabriel Attal, though more visible, converts little among right-wing voters. Gérald Darmanin is eroding among his own. Everything points to the second place being more uncertain than the first.
Within the center itself, tension is building between the desire for a breakaway candidacy capable of shaping a narrative. There is also the wish for continuity that embraces the legacy of the five-year term. The future contender will have to settle this debate and rally territorial support. Then they will need to clarify priorities. Above all, they will have to rebuild a retirees’ bloc that is currently drifting toward the RN.
The Left Between Two Loyalties
The left is still chasing two rabbits at once. The first is electoral unity. The second is identity. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is picking up points within the NFP electorate and reactivating part of his base. Raphaël Glucksmann is consolidating a European social-democratic space that appeals to a slice of Ensemble voters. But both are hampered by a chronic difficulty. The top spot seems out of reach in the short term. Qualifying for the second round will require an alchemy of grassroots mobilization. It will also require the ability to speak beyond partisan boundaries. In addition, the split in votes among Socialists, Insoumis, Greens, and Communists can be a source of breathing room. However, in this context, it could also become an obstacle. Everything will hinge on the coherence of the narrative, fiscal credibility, Europe, practical ecology, and everyday safety.
Beyond The Scores, How Intentions Are Made
A poll is not a ballot box. Elabe notes that the results are calculated among registered voters who say they intend to vote. The sample includes 1,501 people, including 1,396 registered voters, surveyed online on October 30 and 31, 2025. The maximum margin of error reaches about 3.1 points. Five scenarios were tested, combining candidates from the Socialist Party/Place publique, the presidential camp, LR, the RN, and Reconquête; these combinations explain the observed ranges. This statistical envelope requires humility. A score measured at 35% may fall between 32% and 38%. Monthly variation depends on the offer and the frame in which the question is asked. The wording of the scenarios, as well as the presence or absence of certain names, also affects the result. In addition, media saturation at a given moment plays an important role. The bandwagon effect for the front-runner and the catch-up effect for the underdog also quietly influence things.
The shadow of nonresponse, which is never neutral, must also be taken into account. The voters most certain of themselves answer readily. Others stay silent or hesitate. Pollsters correct, adjust, and weight, but uncertainty remains. The figure is not a rock; it is a range where the tide of events leaves ripples. The election itself is still far off. By 2027, individual paths, unforeseen crises, and alliances formed and undone in turn will prove more than one forecast wrong.
Bardella, Portrait Of The Front-Runner
Jordan Bardella’s rise can be explained by an alchemy the RN has been cultivating for years. It combines the gradual normalization of a message that has become familiar and party discipline. It also includes communications centered on a young man fluent in the language of platforms and news channels. This narrative thread, drawn since the 2019 European elections, has met a country wearied by successive shocks. Bardella does not promise exhilaration; he promises order, firmness, and protection. Opposite him, his rivals are still looking for the tune that would move more than an already convinced electorate. When the battle centers on how clear the offer is, the advantage goes to the simplest one. Indeed, that is what happens against an offer that is still undecided.
The paradox is there. The more Marine Le Pen is tangled in the appeal process, the more Bardella emerges as a plausible, independent fallback. The Elabe study indicates that, with all else equal, the gap between them remains narrow. That means the RN vote has become transferable from one figure to another. $1
Vignette. On news sets, his appearances are brief and repeated. They fit television formats that favor simple messages. On social media, carefully edited clips extend that visibility and solidify a core of support. This media machine does not determine the vote, but it shapes attention and, often, openness to supporting him.
What These Numbers Do Not Say, But Suggest
The hypothesis of a second round pits imaginaries against each other more than names. A RN bloc, backed by a mobilized hard core, would finish first almost mechanically. What remains is the camp on the other side. It could emerge from a revived center and a left that is clear-eyed about the arithmetic. Or it could break apart into rivalries that cancel each other out. The coming months will show whether Édouard Philippe regains support among Ensemble voters and moderate LR voters. They will also show whether he can reposition himself among executives and retirees, two crucial groups. They will also reveal whether Mélenchon and Glucksmann stop neutralizing each other.
In this landscape, one point deserves attention. When a candidate is ahead, they attract more attention. As a result, they face the “front-runner spiral.” It consists of polls, critical angles, and counteroffensives. Nothing undermines momentum more than the feeling that something is inevitable. Conversely, nothing revives an opposition better than the prospect of a foregone duel. The country is not there yet. It is listening, gauging, testing. Polls do not decide; they shed light.
Political Snapshot, Caution Required
A poll is never more than a moment in time. This one describes a fractured France, tired of explanations that lead nowhere, ready to hand the top step to Jordan Bardella. The presidential camp is searching for its voice. The left is wavering between two narratives. Marine Le Pen is waiting for her appeal. Democracy, meanwhile, calls for measured numbers and careful words. The rest will belong to the tumult of the months, to campaigns that surprise, to the citizens who decide. And to that share of unpredictability without which an election would be nothing more than arithmetic.